#数字货币市场洞察 There’s a tough battle to fight tonight at 11 PM. As of 20:30, the market’s probability for a rate cut stands at 87%—down 2 points from yesterday. Subtle changes often hide big moves.
Three key data points will drop simultaneously: Personal Spending Rate ( previous 0.6, expected 0.3. If it falls below expectations, that’s good news ); PCE Price Index ( previous 2.7, expected 2.8. This is the Fed’s most closely watched inflation thermometer ); and Core PCE ( expected to stay flat at 2.9 ).
If PCE jumps above 2.8, it’ll be tough to push for a rate cut, as inflation pressures will resu

JPMorgan’s latest research report reveals an interesting observation: at this stage, the key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price trend is no longer the traditional miner selling pressure, but rather institutions’ holding strategies.
Their analysts specifically pointed out that companies like MicroStrategy, which hold Bitcoin for the long term and have a “resolutely not selling” attitude, are the real forces shaping the market. The selling pressure from miners, who need to sell to cover operational costs? Compared to the determination of these whale-level players to hoard coins, its impact has b

#数字货币市场洞察 The timing of today's short position was spot on! Opened a short directly in the 93500 to 92700 range, targeting 91800 and 91000.
Review: Entered at the intraday high of 92660, finally closed around 90948, capturing a profit of 1700 points. $BTC The resistance at this level was indeed clear, and the technicals aligned perfectly.
Sometimes the market is just like this—don't hesitate when it's time to act.

#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 It's the end of the year, and seeing another friend around me successfully cash out really makes me happy for him.
With this year's market, some people have made a fortune, but many more have lost badly. How many people got liquidated and had to leave after the black swan event with tariffs at the beginning of the year? I didn't escape either—I had to cut a lot of my positions back then. Luckily, Ethereum found support at 1400 and started to rebound. Those few months of a one-sided market really provided some opportunities. The 20 billion liquidation across the whole network

#比特币对比代币化黄金 How to view spot gold in the evening session on December 5th?
Actually, tonight’s logic is pretty clear—the fundamentals are solid, the technicals are holding up, and the bears haven’t been able to break through after several attempts, so naturally the bulls will grind their way up bit by bit.
On the US side, inflation data is stable, Treasury yields are still falling, and the US Dollar Index is on the soft side. To put it simply, these macro conditions are basically telling gold to "hold steady, don’t falter."
Looking at the chart, it’s even more obvious:
The 4200 level isn’t brea

The market is always pessimistic. Do you remember all those overwhelming voices last year shouting "sell off US Treasuries"?
And what happened? Pimco turned around and made massive purchases. In hindsight, this contrarian move was quite impressive.
I recently came across an in-depth analysis that broke down their strategy in detail—when market sentiment is at its extremes, that's often when the biggest opportunities arise. This case once again proves an old saying: panic selling creates mispricing, which becomes the golden window for professional institutions to reap rewards.
The logic of trad

A friend sent me a BSU trading competition link today and asked me to take a look. I did the math on the returns, and honestly, maybe we’d be better off delivering food instead.
These trading competitions nowadays are like sifting for treasure in a quagmire—everyone’s lost their minds. Keep bumping up the volume? Then you just have to grit your teeth and keep grinding. If you don’t, you’ll end up getting squeezed yourself; if you do, at least you might lose a little less.
What’s even more frustrating is the spot trading competitions—I feel like that side is about to collapse too. Tokens like A

Just saw the news that the White House economic advisor Hassett hinted that the Fed might cut interest rates next week.
If this news is confirmed, it’s no small matter for the crypto space. Bitcoin has been consolidating at a key level lately, and if the rate cut expectations materialize, the resulting liquidity release could give the market a strong boost. Major coins like SOL and XRP are likely to react as well, since macro changes have a pretty direct impact on the overall sentiment in the crypto market.
The Fed meeting next week is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

#比特币对比代币化黄金 $BTC closed today near $91,256, pulling back about 0.91% during the day. The intraday low touched 91,218, with a high reaching 92,716. Overall, it looks like there’s some short-term pressure. The opening was at 92,094, and trading volume was 142 million, which honestly isn’t particularly active.
Looking at the mid-term trend, the 50-day moving average is currently at a high of $100,201, which is quite a bit above the current price—this means the mid-term setup hasn’t fully strengthened yet. In the short term, BTC is likely to fluctuate repeatedly in the 91,000 to 92,000 range.
Wha

Attention! Starting from December 5, a trading platform will gradually restore deposit and withdrawal functions for 33 digital assets, involving 21 blockchain networks that have been confirmed as secure.
Here’s an important reminder: due to security upgrades and inspections of the wallet system, all previous deposit addresses have been cleared. Before making any deposits, be sure to generate a new address! Do not use your old address anymore, otherwise your funds may be delayed or even stuck.
If you plan to deposit soon, make sure to verify your new address before proceeding. Don’t fall into a

#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 This round of the market is quite different from before. The level of certainty is much higher.
The gains might not be as exaggerated, but mainstream financial institutions have already started to enter the market—which means $BTC is truly entering the real-world financial sector, and there’s still a lot of room for imagination going forward.
BTC can now accommodate large capital. Its value is widely recognized, and the consensus is solid, unlike in the early days when it could easily get cut in half. Holding it for more than ten years? This strategy still works, since long-

#比特币对比代币化黄金 $ZEC Can it reach 430? I'm actually quite looking forward to it.
$BOB Feels like a correction is coming, not sure what will happen next.
Xian, do you think these two predictions can come true? 😁

Last night I saw a number that really blew my mind: the U.S. national debt has officially surpassed $30 trillion. What does that mean? Just the interest payments alone cost $1.2 trillion a year. Some economists describe this as "sinking into quicksand"—the more you struggle, the deeper you sink.
Does this have anything to do with cryptocurrency? Absolutely. When debt piles up, the money printer has to run at full speed, and fiat purchasing power naturally declines. Why is Bitcoin called "digital gold"? Simply put, its total supply is capped at 21 million and can't be increased at someone's whi

Airdrop opportunity for #美联储重启降息步伐 $PIPPIN is here?
The recent market trend has been pretty interesting—the downtrend structure is already quite clear. I checked some on-chain data and found that smart money and whale addresses are basically retreating, with obvious signs of large holders exiting. The signs that the big players are taking profits and running are getting stronger.
Last night, I went short and got double returns. At this point, I don't recommend chasing shorts directly, as funding rates will eat up a lot of your profits and there's a good chance of getting caught in a short-ter

#数字货币市场洞察 $SOL I'm holding through this wave of volatility; my portfolio is still showing green, feeling pretty good. The 144 resistance level actually hasn't really been broken and held yet. I mentioned yesterday afternoon—if it can't break 144, there's a high chance it'll pull back first before making another push. Looks like that's exactly what's happening now: a round of shakeout, gathering momentum before moving up again. That's a healthy trend.

#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 A few days ago, an old friend from the community came to me to vent, saying his account only had 2,000 USDT left. He couldn’t make sense of this ETH market move and wanted to go all in for a last shot.
I immediately poured cold water on him: “This little money isn’t for gambling, it’s for rebuilding your trading system.”
Most people think you need a stroke of luck to turn a small account around. That’s wrong. The ones who really succeed are those who stick to discipline.
**First thing: Control your hands**
His previous trades were the classic chase-the-rally and cut-loss-on-d

The market has been a bit too quiet this week.
Bitcoin is moving within a narrow range, US stocks aren’t making any major moves, and trading volume has clearly shrunk. Everyone is waiting for the big event in December—the Fed’s decision on whether to cut interest rates, and by how much. The economic data released over the past few days has actually been quite critical, but the market’s reaction has been muted, indicating that traders’ attention is fully focused on next week’s FOMC meeting.
If you’re a short-term trader, this kind of low-volatility environment is really tough. Frequent trades c

#美联储重启降息步伐 Have you noticed something really bizarre?
Right now, interest payments alone consume 14% of the US federal budget each year, even though Treasury yields are only at 3.7%. If market sentiment shifts one day and yields spike back to the 6% levels of the 1990s, the books would probably be torn up on the spot.
To put it bluntly, this is the classic opening of “Fiscal Dominance”—monetary policy completely loses its independence and is forced to revolve around plugging fiscal holes.
Here’s the issue: the newly appointed Fed Chair Hassett advocates for aggressive rate cuts, and the bond

#数字货币市场洞察 $ETH Recently, Ethereum's trend has been quite indecisive. The chances of a sharp surge or plunge are low; it looks more like it will be consolidating in the 3250-3098 range for a while. Over the weekend, there will probably just be some minor moves—the real variable will be the rate cut meeting on the 11th next week.
There are three key points to watch in this meeting: whether the rate cut meets market expectations, which will directly determine if short-term sentiment is released; the post-meeting statement is the main event—previously, whenever the official wording hinted at uncer

#数字货币市场洞察 **2025.12.5 $BTC Market Observation Notes**
**[12.4 Trend Review]**
I previously mentioned a judgment criterion: if the price lingers below 93000 for an extended period, we need to be wary of retracement pressure. The key support is in the 91500-92000 area; when it reaches this zone, you can try small long positions, but it’s likely just a rebound opportunity. I estimate the true correction limit is around 90000-90500.
The actual price action validated this idea—yesterday, the price did move below 93000. Around 10:30 PM, it hit 91800 and then quickly rallied to 93250 but failed to h