In recent years, Chinese crypto investors have long relied on USDT and other USD stablecoins to hedge against market volatility, but recent currency movements have prompted them to reassess risk. Over the past six months, the offshore RMB/USD rate has climbed from 7.4 to 7.06, the highest level in a year, meaning investors holding USD stablecoins have seen their asset value quietly shrink when calculated in RMB. For example, if you exchanged RMB 100,000 for USDT in April, you would now only get about RMB 95,400 if you exchanged it back, a loss of about 4.6%—without touching any volatile crypto assets.
A weakening dollar and a strengthening yuan have created double pressure. This year, the US dollar index has fallen nearly 10%, with weak US employment data and Federal Reserve rate-cut policies triggering large-scale unwinding of arbitrage trades. At the same time, a rebound in the Shanghai stock market has attracted foreign capital, further supporting the yuan’s appreciation. RMB settlements between companies are also on the rise, and increased financial hedging demand has pushed RMB demand beyond just speculation. According to Goldman Sachs research, for every 1% appreciation in the RMB, Chinese stock market returns increase by about 3%, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.