#稳定币发展 Seeing Xiaomi's move, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—this is a real turning point for stablecoin payment scenarios.
Looking back to 2017, how many times have we heard the promise that "blockchain will change payments"? Back then, the stories were loud and clear, but in the end? Aside from internal exchange flows, not a single real commercial payment scenario was implemented. Ten years have passed, with ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs taking turns. We've woven countless dreams about mainstream applications, but wallets are still wallets, payments are still payments, and they ha

#劳动力市场 Seeing the Fed's recent actions, I have mixed feelings. This is the third consecutive rate cut, totaling 75 basis points. On the surface, it appears to be a continuation of easing, but the two lonely numbers in the dot plot — one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 — are the real signal. What does this indicate? It indicates that the Fed has reached the end of preventive rate cuts.
Do you remember that round in 2020? At that time, everyone thought liquidity would remain abundant, but what happened? Inflation came, followed by the aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022. History doe

#美联储降息 Seeing this report from JPMorgan, scenes from the liquidity crisis in 2019 flashed through my mind. Interest rate cuts are fully priced in, and the US stock market is facing profit-taking—this phrase sounds fresh, but it’s actually an old story repeating.
Do you remember the panic at the end of 2018, followed by the buyback wave in September 2019? It was the same back then, the market surged crazily under the expectation that "interest rate cuts are coming," but when it actually happened, it turned out to be a selling point. History is so interesting this way; investors are always repe

#Binance Alpha This wave of market really tests human nature. Watching BTC directly surge from 89,000, and ETH breaking through 3380 without any pullback, I understand that feeling of FOMO all too well. But for those of us who have crawled through bull and bear markets, we must understand one principle – chasing the price is just helping the dumb buyer in front.
The interest rate cut combined with monetary easing is a confirmation signal of a large cycle, but it is not a reason to go all in today. I choose to patiently wait in the range of 89,000 to 90,000, rather than chasing the price now.

#美联储降息 Seeing the news about this round of Fed interest rate cuts, scenes from those years I repeatedly experienced come to mind. I remember clearly the interest rate cut cycle at the end of 2019 — when Liquidity warmed up, various assets in the market indeed experienced a broad rise, and that feeling was like the long-repressed funds finally found an outlet. But this time, I can't shake the feeling that the situation is somewhat unusual.
The data is here: weak employment, credit card debt reaching $1.2 trillion, and an average interest rate of over 20%—all of these tell an old story: the

#劳动力市场 The first thought that flashed through my mind upon seeing this labor data report was the scene from 2008.
The voluntary resignation rate has dropped to a low of 1.8%, while the layoff rate is approaching a three-year high—this contrast is striking. More than a decade ago, during the subprime mortgage crisis, we saw a similar scene: the job market appeared calm, but there were undercurrents. Employees are hesitant to change jobs voluntarily because the opportunities outside are worse; companies are quietly optimizing costs. This silence often indicates something.
What is even more alar

#Binance Alpha Seeing this Airdrop news from Binance Alpha, I feel a bit emotional. A threshold of 230 points, 165 LAVA, and an automatic drop of 5 points every five minutes... this trap logic is very familiar because I have seen too many similar pattern evolutions.
Do you remember the early IEO craze? At that time, the various incentive mechanisms of platform tokens launched by exchanges were essentially based on this core logic—creating a sense of scarcity with points, setting participation thresholds, and maintaining excitement through dynamic adjustments. I have experienced several projec

#稳定币发展 Seeing these predictions for 2026 gives me a sense of time travel. The number of stablecoins will exceed Layer2, and this judgment hits on an observation I've had for many years — every cycle we keep making the same mistakes, only with a different disguise.
Do you remember the ICO boom in 2017? The barriers to entry were low, the stories were captivating, and the funds were pouring in. Today’s explosion of stablecoins is not so different — the issuance thresholds are astonishingly low, but that’s precisely the hidden danger. I have seen too many seemingly perfect financial Lego blo

#美联储降息 Seeing this round of interest rate cuts, images from 2015 and 2020 flashed through my mind. History always repeats itself, only the participants change.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is set, and this matter itself is nothing new—the issue is that the market has already priced in this expectation. Interestingly, Bitcoin has instead found a foothold at the $80,000 threshold. The slope of the 200-day moving average has turned positive, and I've seen this signal more than once. It's always the same routine: first, panic selling creates a bottom, and then when the fund

#劳动力市场 Seeing Morgan Stanley's judgment on the bull run in 2026, what flashed through my mind were the several cycles I have experienced over the years. The statement that the labor market "is only showing moderate weakness" is actually a very interesting signal for those who have lived through several bear and bull markets.
Looking back at the 2008 financial crisis, the labor market was truly frozen—unemployment soared to 10%, and corporate hiring almost came to a halt. At that time, no amount of liquidity easing policies could save the stock market. However, during the adjustment wave i

#稳定币发展 Seeing Brazil, Malaysia, and South Korea launch their local currency stablecoins in the same time window, an idea immediately flashed through my mind - this is a watershed moment in the history of stablecoin development.
Do you remember the cycle in 2017 when stablecoins were more of a subsidiary to the dollar, with USDT dominating the market while others either faded quickly or became mere trading tools? But now, looking at these cases, the logic has completely reversed. Paradigm invested in the Brazilian real stablecoin BRLV, which is not just a financing deal but also a strategic be

#稳定币业务 Seeing the recent market trend of CRC, I am reminded of those days in 2017. It was the same back then - the financial reports were incredibly good, the rise numbers were shocking, yet the stock price was falling. At that time, we all felt confused, but it now appears that this actually reflects a misunderstanding of the essence of the business model by the market.
The story of CRCL is quite interesting. On the surface, it shows a high rise—Q3 revenue of $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%, and USDC circulation doubling to 73.7 billion. But digging deeper, you will find that th

#加密钱包 Seeing the news about Stripe's acquisition of the Valora team and the collaboration between Sei and Xiaomi, what flashed through my mind was the wave of 2017. Back then, everyone was also discussing "when mainstream applications would be able to integrate wallets," and what happened? Most attempts turned out to be a flash in the pan.
But this time it is a bit different. Stripe's logic is very clear - they are not betting on cryptocurrency itself, but on the future of stablecoins as a payment tool, which is pragmatic. Although Valora's technology is not being acquired, the te

#比特币价格 Seeing the actions of this round of Strategy, buying 10,624 Bitcoins for 962.7 million dollars at an average price of 90,615 dollars, what flashed through my mind were still the memories of those years.
The madness of 2017, the despair of 2018, the institutional entry in 2020... Now it's already 2025, looking back at the changes along this timeline is really interesting. Who would have thought back then that institutions would persistently buy Bitcoin like this? Strategy holds 660,624 coins at a cost of $74,696, behind this number are countless judgments and adjustments.
History al

#美联储政策 Seeing Hasset's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the debate in 2015. At that time, it was also a tug-of-war over the rate of interest rate cuts, with the market expecting 25 basis points, and the hawks insisting on holding steady. So what happened in the end? In early 2016, there was a circuit breaker, and then another round at the end of 2018. History does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes.
The current situation is interesting. On one side, there is pressure from the White House for an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while on the other side, the futures market i

#Binance Alpha Seeing the ups and downs of the Midnight( NIGHT) Airdrop reminds me of many similar situations I've experienced over the years. Latency and reopening are not uncommon during critical moments of a project's launch, often reflecting some real dilemmas faced by the exchange and the project party in terms of coordination, system pressure, or risk control.
Do you remember how many projects during the big wave in 2017 experienced technical failures, excessive issuance, or even direct collapse at launch? In contrast, the handling of Binance Alpha this time—identifying the prob

#宏观经济影响 Seeing this analysis of gray scale, I couldn't help but feel a sense of emotion. The "four-year cycle" that we are familiar with has finally become part of history.
Do you remember those years in 2013 and 2017? The halving events acted like a conductor's baton, influencing the pulse of the entire market. Each cycle repeats the same story: the frenzy of retail investors, the media's celebration, followed by a ruthless crash. Back then, Bitcoin's price trajectory resembled a curve driven by passion, with explosive rises and falls becoming the norm.
But now it's diffe

#预测市场 The prediction market in December is playing out that old story again. Jumping from 30% to 40%, a seemingly simple ten percentage points, yet it condenses the repeated fluctuations of market sentiment. This reminds me of the end of 2017, when everyone was debating whether Bitcoin could break through $20,000. The prediction contracts back then also saw such ups and downs, and in the end, history has its own answers.
What does the data fluctuation of Polymarket essentially reflect? It reflects the continuous reassessment of reality by participants. The barrier of one hundred thousand doll

#美联储政策分析 Seeing the voting disagreement data from this Fed meeting, a memory of the policy shift in 2015 flashed through my mind. At that time, there were also disagreements within the Fed, but it was nowhere near as severe as today – 5 out of 12 voting members opposed, which has been rare since 1990.
A glance at the historical accounts reveals that whenever there is such a level of internal division in monetary policy, it often signifies that the market is about to enter a new phase of competition. The tapering controversy in 2018 and last year's interest rate hike disagreements ultimate