#美联储货币政策 Looking back over the past few decades of Federal Reserve monetary policy, it’s clear that its game with political forces has always existed. Recently, Trump again criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates, which reminded me of the situation in 1972 when Nixon pressured then-Fed Chairman Burns. At that time, in order to help secure re-election, Nixon demanded Burns cut rates to stimulate the economy, ultimately leading to severe inflation issues.
Now, Trump seems to be repeating this pattern, even hinting at replacing Powell. But history has shown us that political interferenc

Looking back on the years of cryptocurrency regulation, I can't help but feel a mix of emotions. Today, I saw news that the SEC Chairman stated the #加密货币监管 Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act is about to pass, which naturally brings to mind the wild growth during the 2017 ICO boom. At that time, regulation was still in a gray area, and project teams and investors were exploring in the shadows. Now, the market has matured, and the regulatory framework is gradually improving, which is undoubtedly beneficial for the industry's long-term development.
Looking at the current market, Bitcoin has bro

Looking back at the SEC meetings over the past few days, I can't help but think of the ICO boom in 2017. At that time, regulation was still in its infancy, and various projects grew wildly. Now the SEC is planning to strengthen regulation of tokenized assets, and traditional finance and the crypto industry are once again at odds. Citadel Securities has suggested imposing stricter rules on decentralized exchanges, while Coinbase believes DEXs should not be equated with traditional brokers. This disagreement actually reflects the struggle between centralization and decentralization. From a histo

#比特币市场分析 Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, I have witnessed too many predictions and speculations. Now, on Polymarket, there is again a discussion about whether Bitcoin will return to $100,000 within the year. This reminds me of the 2017 bull market, when some also predicted Bitcoin would break through $100,000, but that did not materialize.
The market always repeats similar patterns. Currently, the probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 is about 50%, a figure that is neither high nor low, reflecting market uncertainty. Interestingly, the probability of falling below $80,000 is only

Looking back on the development history of prediction markets over the years, I can't help but feel a mix of emotions. From the initial niche experiments to today's billion-dollar industry, this field has experienced many ups and downs. Currently, the regulatory turmoil faced by Kalshi seems to echo the early days of Bitcoin. Back then, there were constant controversies and doubts, but ultimately, a path was carved out.
The recent bans on platforms like Kalshi in Connecticut, along with lawsuits in Nevada, are testing the survival bottom line of prediction markets. Interestingly, the more turb

#比特币价格分析 Reflecting on the Bitcoin market over the past years, I can't help but feel a mix of emotions. This report from Bitfinex reminds me of the bottom characteristics observed in previous cycles. The current market is experiencing a typical deleveraging and capitulation process, with many indicators suggesting we may be approaching a local bottom.
The real-world adjustments have led to losses soaring to $400 million, a level that usually indicates capitulation is nearing its end. Open interest in futures contracts has also significantly declined from its highs, indicating that leverage is

#美联储利率政策预期 Looking back on these years of interest rate hike cycles, I can't help but think of the 2018 bear market. At that time, the Federal Reserve was also raising interest rates consecutively, and the market's confidence once collapsed. But now it seems that those adjustments laid the foundation for the subsequent bull market. Currently, market expectations for rate cuts by the end of the year are heating up, as if we have returned to that time. However, we must remember that history never repeats itself simply. The current data on inflation, employment, and other indicators are very dif

#美国加密货币监管 Looking back at history, regulatory reforms are always accompanied by market shifts. Japan’s recent move to lower the cryptocurrency profit tax to 20% reminds me of their pioneering legislation in 2017 that recognized Bitcoin as legal tender. That sparked worldwide attention and injected confidence into the crypto industry’s development.
Today, Japan is once again at the forefront of policy. Aligning crypto tax rates with those of stocks and other traditional financial products is undoubtedly another affirmation of digital assets. This tax reform not only can stimulate market vitali

#比特币市场分析 Looking back, the fate of Bitcoin always evokes a myriad of emotions. The surge to a peak of $69,000 seems like it was just yesterday. Now, seeing that the probability of Bitcoin reaching over $100,000 again this year on Polymarket exceeds 50%, I am reminded of the crazy days of 2021.
At that time, the market was in a frenzy, with various predictions shouting that Bitcoin would break $100,000. As everyone knows, they were close but ultimately missed by a step. Now it seems that history repeats itself in different ways. But this time, we seem to have become more cautious and rational.

#美联储利率政策预期 Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have always been a nerve-wracking factor for global financial markets. This time, the Bank of Japan's hint at possible rate hikes has brought new uncertainty to the US markets. Remember back in 2008 after the financial crisis, central banks around the world cut interest rates; who would have thought that Japan would be the first to signal a rate increase?
Currently, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to a near 15-year high, and US Treasury yields have also increased accordingly. This reminds

Looking back on the years of cryptocurrency regulation, it has been a rollercoaster with ups and downs. Now seeing SEC Chairman stating that the #美国加密货币监管进展 Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act is about to pass, I can't help but feel a mix of emotions. From initial full rejection to gradual acceptance today, the shift in regulatory attitude reflects the industry's growth.
Franklin Solana spot ETF listing and Polymarket's return to the US market are positive signals. Additionally, Bitcoin has broken through $94,000, and Ethereum has surpassed $3,200, indicating a clear rebound in market sentime

#加密货币法律纠纷 Looking back at this case, I can't help but think of the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market. Polymarket's return to the US market after legal troubles is not an uncommon story in our industry. From being penalized by the CFTC in 2022 to regaining regulatory approval now, so many changes have occurred in this period.
This reminds me of the fate of early Bitcoin exchanges. When Mt. Gox collapsed, many believed that cryptocurrency trading was beyond salvation. However, the industry gradually became more regulated under regulatory pressure, ultimately giving rise to today's comp

#美联储货币政策 Looking back over the past few decades of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy history, I can't help but feel the uniqueness of the current situation. I've never seen such a divided landscape, which reminds me of the difficult decisions during the Volcker era in 1979. At that time, inflation was high, and Volcker had to implement strict tightening policies, sparking significant controversy. Today, in the face of slowing economic growth and inflation pressures, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for interest rates have reached their highest point since 2012. T

#比特币价格趋势分析 Looking back on the Bitcoin market over the years, it truly evokes a multitude of feelings. From the 2017 bull run to the 2018 crash, and then to the slow recovery in 2019, each cycle has left us with profound lessons. Now seeing analysts predict that Bitcoin could fall to $55,000, I can't help but think of the so-called "$30,000 bottom" theory from back then.
History always tends to repeat itself surprisingly. The market situation in 2019 is indeed somewhat similar to now, as Bitcoin found support at the middle line of the Bollinger Bands after the end of quantitative easing. But

#加密货币市场趋势 Looking back on these years in the crypto market, it has been a roller coaster ride, witnessing many grand and tumultuous moments. Last night's surge in Bitcoin reminded me of the crazy bull run in 2017. Having experienced several big ups and downs, I now view these short-term fluctuations with a much calmer mindset.
The support level of $89,923 is very critical. Past experience has shown us that breaking important support levels often signals the start of a new trend. However, chasing gains now does carry significant risk, as the price has already deviated from the standard lines i

#美国加密货币监管新进展 Looking back on the development of cryptocurrencies over the years, I have witnessed countless changes in regulatory policies. Taiwan is about to launch its first regulated stablecoin, which reminds me of New York State's introduction of the BitLicense in 2015. At that time, it was also aimed at regulating digital asset transactions, but its implementation led to many companies leaving.
Taiwan's approach this time seems more cautious. It is expected to be launched by the end of 2026, giving the market and regulators ample time to prepare. Moreover, the initial issuance will be le

#比特币价格分析 Looking back at Bitcoin price movements, I have witnessed too many ups and downs. Now, Polymarket predicts a 51% chance of reaching $100,000 again this year, which inevitably reminds me of the crazy bull market in 2021. At that time, many people firmly believed that Bitcoin would break through the $100,000 mark, but it ended up crashing. History is always surprisingly similar, but the details are different.
Does this prediction reflect overly optimistic market sentiment? Or is there some fundamental change supporting it? I tend to remain cautious. After all, the crypto market is high

#美联储货币政策 The recent net inflow of digital asset investment products reminds me of the scene during the Federal Reserve's large-scale quantitative easing in 2020. At that time, the market was also jubilant, with funds pouring into the cryptocurrency space like a tide. However, the current situation is somewhat different. Although Williams' remarks have sparked expectations of rate cuts, we must not forget that inflation remains a thorny issue.
Looking back at history, the Fed's policy shifts often trigger intense market volatility. The late 1970s Volcker era is a classic example, when interest

Looking back on the past, the development of the prediction market has been full of ups and downs. Polymarket was once extremely popular, but now it has lost its shine. The rise of Kalshi makes me think of the rise and fall of Intrade back in the day.
Seeing the news that Kalshi completed a $1 billion financing at a valuation of $11 billion, I feel a mix of emotions. This number is astonishing, but it also reminds me of projects that were equally impressive at the time but eventually disappeared into the long river of history.
Kalshi has defied the odds under heavy regulatory pressure, with tr

#加密资产交易策略 Looking back on HumidiFi's ICO, I can't help but think of the crazy ICO wave in 2017. Back then, projects could easily raise tens of millions of dollars, and investors flocked in droves. Now, it seems that HumidiFi's ICO arrangement is quite cautious.
They adopted a phased, segmented sales strategy, first satisfying core users and supporters, then targeting a broader investor base. Overall, this approach helps build a more stable community foundation. However, I noticed they adjusted the allocation ratios during the process, which suggests that the project team’s market response est