#美联储降息 Seeing the news about this round of Fed interest rate cuts, scenes from those years I repeatedly experienced come to mind. I remember clearly the interest rate cut cycle at the end of 2019 — when Liquidity warmed up, various assets in the market indeed experienced a broad rise, and that feeling was like the long-repressed funds finally found an outlet. But this time, I can't shake the feeling that the situation is somewhat unusual.

The data is here: weak employment, credit card debt reaching $1.2 trillion, and an average interest rate of over 20%—all of these tell an old story: the seemingly loose environmental policies are actually a heavily indebted economy struggling to hold on. Lowering interest rates can indeed provide support for asset prices, there is no doubt about that, but the underlying foundation of that support is becoming increasingly fragile.

What makes me most vigilant is the unusual division within the Fed. Nick Timiraos's article touches on a dilemma not seen in decades—persistent inflation coupled with cooling employment. The lessons of stagflation from the 1970s have warned us about how dangerous the Fed's stop-and-go attitude can be. Today, the reality that Powell has only five meetings left in his term, combined with the internal disagreements within the committee, means that this uncertainty itself can amplify the intensity of market shocks.

The improvement in liquidity is just superficial; the real risk lies in the fact that consumers have already overdrawn their future purchasing power with credit. This wave of rise may come, but I suggest taking a look at the fundamentals of your holdings. History tells us that the most beautiful rebounds often harbor the deepest traps.