#劳动力市场 The first thought that flashed through my mind upon seeing this labor data report was the scene from 2008.

The voluntary resignation rate has dropped to a low of 1.8%, while the layoff rate is approaching a three-year high—this contrast is striking. More than a decade ago, during the subprime mortgage crisis, we saw a similar scene: the job market appeared calm, but there were undercurrents. Employees are hesitant to change jobs voluntarily because the opportunities outside are worse; companies are quietly optimizing costs. This silence often indicates something.

What is even more alarming is the line of credit. Consumer credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, with an average interest rate exceeding 20%. This is not a new phenomenon, but it becomes very dangerous when layered on a weak employment foundation. Since 2020, we have seen too many similar cycles – asset prices appearing prosperous on the surface, yet increasingly fragile purchasing power supports them underneath.

The dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve is actually quite familiar. Lowering interest rates is meant to calm the market, but inflation remains stubbornly persistent. The significant internal divisions indicate that the decision-makers are also weighing the risks of stagflation. The lessons from the 1970s are clear—back then, the stop-and-go approach ultimately allowed high inflation to take root. Now, as Powell's term enters its countdown, the decision-making space will only get narrower.

For asset prices, a short-term interest rate cut is indeed supportive. However, the ceiling of this support is already clear: weak growth and limited consumption mean that the intensity of market shocks may far exceed expectations. What we need is not the warmth of interest rate cuts, but a real signal of recovery in the labor market. Without that, everything is just paper prosperity.

This situation is worth waiting for further confirmation of the data.