#稳定币发展 Seeing these predictions for 2026 gives me a sense of time travel. The number of stablecoins will exceed Layer2, and this judgment hits on an observation I've had for many years — every cycle we keep making the same mistakes, only with a different disguise.

Do you remember the ICO boom in 2017? The barriers to entry were low, the stories were captivating, and the funds were pouring in. Today’s explosion of stablecoins is not so different — the issuance thresholds are astonishingly low, but that’s precisely the hidden danger. I have seen too many seemingly perfect financial Lego blocks collapse instantly under real market pressure. The warning about the "trustless asset management" protocol potentially losing over $100 million to a hacker reminds me of the series of flash loan incidents during the DeFi Summer in 2020 — history has not truly learned its lesson, just repeating itself.

What’s more interesting is the rise of BTC Layer 2. Years ago, we were debating the narrative boundaries of Bitcoin, and now it is finally becoming clear. This is not only a technological evolution but also a validation of the understanding of the entire industry cycle—when the narrative of a chain reaches its end, there will always be someone to reactivate it from another perspective.

The inflow of stablecoins is rebuilding risk appetite, with a rebound driven by spot rather than leverage—this indicates that the market has finally learned a bit of rationality. However, rationality is often bought with the lessons of blood. The next round may not see as many position explosions, but new traps are inevitably being laid.