The 2025 cycle has brought some notable differences to the market.
Previously, Bitcoin (BTC) often experienced strong price rallies after each halving, with the first four post-halving cycles driven by scarcity of supply and supply-demand imbalance. However, 2025 broke this pattern, as BTC ended the year with a 6% decline.
This divergence is also clearly evident in the altcoin market. The TOTAL3 index (market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH) has experienced its fourth consecutive year of decline compared to Bitcoin, marking the end of an “altcoin season” that has been gradually fading over the past four years.
Source: TradingView This clearly reflects the increasing influence of BTC on the entire market.
From a technical perspective, this is a reasonable development. Bitcoin’s dominance index (BTC.D) has maintained a continuous upward trend for four years, rising from around 40% in 2022 to over 60% in 2025. This means BTC’s market cap has increased by 100%, approximately $900 billion.
Notably, during the same period, the total market capitalization reached $1.11 trillion, indicating that nearly 80% of the new capital flowed into BTC, reinforcing its leading position. In this context, is the “altcoin season” still a promising phenomenon?
Looking back at the 2021 growth cycle – Key signals from the altcoin market
In retrospect, the 2021 cycle was truly a representative altcoin season.
On the 12-month chart, BTC’s market cap increased by 64% and for the first time surpassed the historic $1 trillion mark. However, the TOTAL3 (market cap excluding BTC and ETH) outperformed with a 541% increase.
As a result, the Altcoin Season Index peaked, signaling an explosive altcoin season with strong capital flows shifting into the broader altcoin market. However, since then, BTC has gradually taken control. So, what has really changed?
Source: TradingView (TOTAL3)The answer lies in the sharp increase in altcoin funding rates.
In other words, leveraged long positions are overloaded. While this may seem positive, in reality, it causes altcoins to fall into a cycle of high volatility, where even small fluctuations can trigger waves of liquidations.
Additionally, with the BTC.D index continuously rising, altcoins become more vulnerable to major market swings. In this context, the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins is not accidental but rather evidence that 2021 might have been the “last true altcoin season.”
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Gold and silver are rising, while BVIX and EVIX are down more than 1%
On April 10, the precious metals market was strong: gold rose to $4,773.60 per ounce, and silver rose to $76.364 per ounce. In the crypto market, volatility eased, the FX market saw the U.S. dollar weaken versus the Chinese yuan, and global equity indexes rose. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose while Brent crude oil fell. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial assets.
GateNews5m ago
PEPE on the Edge: Will ETF Momentum Push Prices Higher?
ETF filing boosted PEPE sentiment, but confirmation remains uncertain.
Price compresses near support, signaling a possible breakout soon.
Resistance levels must break to confirm bullish momentum.
PepeCoin — PEPE, has returned to center stage after fresh ETF chatter shook the market.
CryptoNewsLand57m ago
Crypto Sector Wavers As Geopolitical Tensions Influence Market Performance
The crypto market has seen a 1.14% decline, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing slight gains. Top gainers include PEPE and IRISnet. DeFi TVL increased, while NFT sales dropped. Notable events include xAI suing Colorado and South Korea tightening crypto regulations.
BlockChainReporter1h ago
U.S. March CPI data is about to be released: market expectations and analysis of crypto capital flows
Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.
InstantTrends3h ago
Grayscale Says Aave Could Become Household Name
Grayscale says Aave could become mainstream, highlighting its decentralized lending model without intermediaries.
Bank of Canada finds Aave has lower margins due to reduced costs but flags risks from leveraged trading.
Governance issues and liquidations persist, though upgrades and ETF
CryptoFrontNews3h ago
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rises to 16, and market panic sentiment slightly eases
Gate News message, on April 10, according to Alternative data, the crypto fear and greed index today is 16, up 2 points from yesterday’s 14, with the market’s “fear” sentiment slightly easing. The index threshold range is 0-100; based on an overall assessment of market sentiment, its components include: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media buzz (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s share across the entire market (10%), and Google trending search analysis (10%).
GateNews4h ago
