Market Analysis

A peculiar valuation gap is happening in the Bittensor ecosystem that has market watchers questioning whether traditional supply-and-demand logic has temporarily broken, or whether it’s signaling something much bigger on the horizon. As highlighted by the AI-driven analytics platform aixbt

Gate News, on March 18, Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of Strategy, posted that STRC's volatility has dropped to a historic low of 1.5%, while its Sharpe ratio (a metric measuring risk-adjusted returns) has risen to a historic high of 5.37, setting a new record for risk-adjusted return performance.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, analyzes Bitcoin's market, stating that a move above $80,000 could signal a bull market. His outlook is based on institutional purchasing patterns, while he continues to warn of quantum computing threats to Bitcoin's future by 2028.

2026-03-18 11:15 to 11:30 (UTC), BTC recorded a -0.48% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of 73570.9 to 74008.0 USDT, and amplitude reaching 0.59%. The market exhibited increased volatility characteristics during this period, drawing investor attention to the causes of short-term movements. The main driving force behind this movement is the release of short-term selling pressure and changes in liquidity. If large-scale BTC transfers occur on-chain, and spot and futures trading volumes surge, it may trigger short-term market selling, especially in the context of sell-side dominance and weakened order book liquidity.

The crypto market shows mixed results with a $2.54T cap, as Bitcoin dips 0.13% and Ethereum rises 0.61%. Notable gainers include $TRUMP, $IDOS, and $MAGA. DeFi and NFT markets also see significant activity, while regulatory developments emerge from the SEC and CFTC.

Gate News reports that on March 18, CryptoQuant data showed the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold dropped to -0.88, hitting a new low since November 2022. The data indicates a strong negative correlation between the two, with Bitcoin's price rising to $74,000 while gold experienced a slight decline.

Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's CLO, welcomes the SEC's reclassification of XRP as a commodity, suggesting it could enhance adoption and ease exchange listings. Despite a recent price drop, XRP remains above key support levels, although trading volume has significantly decreased.

QCP Capital analysis indicates that BTC price is maintaining around $74,000, with a lack of upward momentum. Although the overall crypto market remains under pressure, the declines are relatively controlled. Central bank policy meetings throughout the year will influence the market, as high oil prices have lowered expectations for rate cuts, and the interest rate environment has weakened support for crypto assets. Until policy and geopolitical situations become clearer, a volatile pattern may continue.

On-chain analyst Axel's research report indicates that the Bitcoin market has returned to a neutral range, but overall remains in a loss state with unrelenting selling pressure. The MVRV Z-Score shows that valuation bubbles have dissipated; however, aSOPR has remained below 1.0 for 55 consecutive days, indicating sustained selling pressure. Axel emphasizes that the key to the market lies in whether selling pressure will be exhausted, requiring observation of whether aSOPR can stabilize above 1.0.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a shift toward caution on the cryptocurrency market's medium-term outlook, primarily due to slow progress in U.S. crypto asset legislation. Bitcoin's target was reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's fell to $3,175. Despite upside potential remaining in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts suggests prices may oscillate within a range in the near term. Citigroup's assessment of Ethereum is more cautious, as it believes the asset is more significantly impacted by on-chain activity.

Under Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin faced widespread selling pressure, particularly from retail holders. According to Glassnode data, the market is experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the accumulated trend score declining to 0.04, indicating that retail and small-to-medium investors are reducing their positions significantly. Despite this, Bitcoin's resilience against the decline has surprised market observers.

Enjin Coin has surged 22.96% in 30 minutes, reaching $0.02737, reflecting increased trading activity and market interest. With a 24-hour change of +43.30%, traders are monitoring support at $0.025 and resistance at $0.030, suggesting potential trends ahead.

Ethereum's price rebounded above $2,300 on March 18, primarily driven by whale purchases and net exchange outflows. On-chain data shows investors have reduced their selling pressure, with supply tightening. Technical indicators reveal short-term resistance at $2,380 to $2,400, with support near $2,320. The futures market is also displaying positive signals.

Key Insights XRP Ledger processed over 2.5 million transactions in 24 hours, reflecting rising network engagement while the asset price remained stable near resistance. XRP price holds near $1.41 while forming higher lows, indicating buyers continue supporting the asset despite repeated resis

Bitcoin price has fallen back to $74,000, with the market paying close attention to Fed Chair Powell's speech. Ongoing whale buying and ETF inflows demonstrate long-term demand, but short-term selling pressure should be watched carefully. Market sentiment is improving, and volatility could increase.

On March 18, on-chain data analyst Axel released a report indicating that the Bitcoin market has moved out of an overheated state, but selling pressure still exists and no reversal signals have appeared. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.674, suggesting that the bubble has been deflated; meanwhile, the aSOPR indicator remains below 1.0, indicating that the market is still in a loss-selling phase, with a rebound facing the risk of selling pressure.

Analysts point out that Ethereum has recently outperformed the S&P 500 index, though Federal Reserve policy decisions may impact its upward momentum. Despite prices remaining below last year's highs, institutional investors are actively increasing positions, demonstrating strengthened confidence in Ethereum, while the launch of new ETFs also reflects sustained market interest in digital assets and decentralized finance.

Bitcoin's upward momentum weakened after touching $75,000, with market concerns about a near-term peak. Despite continued institutional accumulation pushing total open interest to $58 billion, prices face pressure from macro uncertainty. Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1.5 billion support the price. Market focus remains on the Federal Reserve meeting and geopolitical situation, which may impact near-term trends.

Bitwise's research indicates that Ethereum's price movements are primarily driven by Bitcoin and macroeconomic liquidity, with relatively weak influence from on-chain fundamentals. The model shows that Bitcoin volatility can explain 65% of Ethereum's volatility, while accommodative monetary conditions and ETF fund flows also contribute to Ethereum's price. The current market views Ethereum as a "network commodity," and its price movements in the short term may still be dominated by Bitcoin and the liquidity environment.

BitMine (BMNR) stock price has surged recently, with a single-day gain of nearly 14% on March 16, closely related to its held Ethereum assets. However, BMNR and Ethereum show a phase mismatch, leading to short-term decoupling. Institutional funds are arbitraging this opportunity, with significantly increased trading volume. The technical side shows positive signals, but key resistance is around the $24 level, with attention needed on breakthrough performance at this level and subsequent price action.