Macroeconomics

OpenAI has recently faced multiple crises, including the shutdown of its Sora video generation platform, Disney's withdrawal of its $1 billion investment plan, user attrition and executive departures due to Pentagon contracts, and a quarterly loss of $11.5 billion in 2025. External skepticism about its business model and concerns over an AI bubble burst are mounting, with its future profitability prospects looking bleak.

Citigroup's Chief Investment Officer Kate Moore expressed concern about investors' overly optimistic expectations regarding the US-Iran situation, believing that potential impacts of energy shocks and inflation may be underestimated. She recommended a more cautious approach to portfolio construction to enhance risk resilience and hedge against inflationary risks.

Recently, Brent crude oil prices have declined while gold continues to rise, displaying stagflationary market characteristics. Bitcoin's price movement has gradually decoupled from oil and shifted toward tracking gold, reflecting institutional investors' view of it as a hedge asset. The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy has intensified market concerns about inflation and economic growth slowdown. This phenomenon is historically closely associated with major macroeconomic shifts.

Singapore Exchange listed its first locally-tracked gold ETF on March 26, LionGlobal Physical Gold ETF, with underlying gold purity of no less than 99.5%. This move echoes Hong Kong's gold layout, but current gold prices are under pressure and declining. Analysts point out that due to rising energy prices and inflation expectations, market focus has shifted to inflation and interest rates.

Gate News, on March 26, Japan's 2-year government bonds (2-year bonds issued by the Japanese government) yield rose to 1.315%, marking a new high since 1996.

Gate News reports that on March 26, the midpoint rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar fell 145 basis points to 6.9056 compared to the previous trading day, marking the largest decline since November 11, 2024.

Iran announces no intention for direct talks with the US, rejects ceasefire proposal, driving up oil prices. Brent crude breaks through $100, analysts believe the Fed won't rush to adjust policy, further attention needed on geopolitical impact on markets.

Bitcoin has recently been oscillating between $60,000 and $75,000, with reduced selling pressure in the market. Spot ETF inflows have turned positive, indicating a possible market bottom formation. Long-term holders' reluctance to sell is also strengthening price support. However, macroeconomic uncertainty remains, impacting market sentiment.

Gate News reported that on March 25, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing that U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels for the week ending March 20, far exceeding market expectations of 0.477 million barrels, with the previous value at 6.156 million barrels. Crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma (the main U.S. crude oil delivery point) increased by 3.421 million barrels, with the previous value at 0.944 million barrels. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory remained at 0 million barrels, with the previous value at 0 million barrels.

Gate News reports that on March 25, the Dallas Federal Reserve released an energy survey showing that respondents expect WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. crude oil benchmark price) to be priced at $74 per barrel by the end of 2026. Regarding drilling activity, 50% of respondents expect drilling numbers will not increase in 2026, while 47% of respondents expect oil well numbers will see slight or significant increases.

BNY Mellon’s CEO, Robin Vince, recently stated that large banks will drive the next wave of crypto growth by linking digital assets with traditional finance. He highlighted that clearer regulations will allow banks to offer secure and reliable crypto services, making digital assets more accessible t

Due to deteriorating Middle East tensions, Turkey's foreign exchange reserves are declining rapidly, triggering market concerns about exchange rate stability. The central bank has deployed $30 billion to support the lira and may replenish liquidity through gold reserve sales. Rising international oil prices have exacerbated inflation and trade deficits, leaving Turkey facing pressure for currency depreciation and interest rate increases.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos announced that the nation has entered an energy emergency state to address threats to energy supply from Middle East conflicts. Multiple countries globally that rely on imported energy have also implemented austerity measures, reflecting the fragility of energy supply chains and the impact of conflicts on international markets.

International Energy Agency Director Birol stated in Tokyo that in response to surging global energy prices, it will prepare to release additional oil reserves. Previously, Japan's Prime Minister requested preparations for a second emergency release. The IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil and warned that global energy security faces severe threats.

Deutsche Bank report analyzes the current state of the petrodollar system, pointing out that it faced pressure before the war. Factors such as U.S. energy independence, the trend of oil currency localization, and shaken trust in the Gulf region pose challenges to the system, resulting in increased Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia and more non-dollar transactions.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an interview that if oil prices reach $150 per barrel, it could trigger a global economic recession. He pointed out that the outcome of conflicts could lead to either a decline or sustained high oil prices, affecting the economic situation.

Data from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the Consumer Price Index rose 3% year-over-year in February, with core inflation reaching 3.2%. The market expects inflation to remain elevated due to Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices, which will impact monetary policy. The pound weakened slightly against the dollar, with analysts predicting the Bank of England may maintain high interest rates to counter the "second-round inflation effects."

Gate News reported that on March 25, Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 Brent crude oil (one of the global crude oil price benchmarks) price forecast to $80 per barrel.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute points out that Bitcoin's return to the $70,000 level is due to easing tensions in the Middle East, which has led to a decline in crude oil prices and reduced geopolitical risks. Market concerns about inflation and supply disruptions have eased, with capital flowing toward risk assets. If oil prices remain stable, it could improve Bitcoin's performance; if they rise again, it could suppress Bitcoin's price.

Reuters/Ipsos latest poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level, with only 36% approving of his job performance. Economic management and cost of living issues have significantly worsened public approval, with only 25% of respondents approving of Trump's handling of these issues.