Monetary Policy

The U.S. Senate housing bill now includes a provision banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail CBDC until at least 2031, reflecting growing congressional interest in digital currency policy and potential impacts on financial technology strategies.

Author: Arthur Hayes Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow Introduction: The core argument of Hayes's article is simple: from the Gulf War in 1990 to the War on Terror in 2001, every U.S.-led Middle East war has been followed by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. He believes that the Iran war in 2026 will repeat this same historical logic, and that will be the time to increase Bitcoin holdings. The viewpoint is clear and logical; you don't have to agree after reading, but it's worth serious consideration. Full text below: (All opinions in this article are solely the author's personal views and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations to participate in investment transactions.) Under the instruction of Donald J. Trump, the U.S. President known for his preference for peace, the U.S. Department of Defense has jointly launched an offensive Agent AI weapon—a deadly, entirely new

The "21st Century Housing Roadmap Act" proposed by the U.S. Senate includes a provision that bans the Federal Reserve from issuing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), with the ban remaining in effect until 2030. The bill aims to reduce housing costs and support the development of private stablecoins. The White House has expressed support for the bill, emphasizing that preventing CBDC development is a current policy priority. Bipartisan lawmakers have reached a consensus on this issue, making it a cooperative clause that can transcend party divisions.

The deadline for the White House's stablecoin legislation CLARITY has passed, but progress has stalled due to the crypto and banking industries failing to reach a consensus on stablecoin yields. The banking sector is concerned about outflows of customer funds and strongly opposes stablecoin reward arrangements. If legislation cannot be enacted in the future, it could trigger market uncertainty and impact the inflow of crypto funds.

The UK Gambling Commission plans to explore crypto payments to combat illegal gambling activities and promote digital transformation. The commission is working with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to implement a compliance framework by 2027, requiring operators to adhere to strict eligibility testing. This move aims to improve market efficiency, crack down on black markets, and protect consumers, establishing a safe and legal gambling environment.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jintiao, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows a 2.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by March, and a 97.5% probability of holding rates steady. By April, the probability of a total 25 basis point cut is 16.3%, with an 83.4% chance of no change, and a 0.4% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point cut is 40.3%.

From 14:30 to 14:45 (UTC) on March 2, 2026, the price of BTC achieved a return of +1.57% within 15 minutes, with the price quickly rising from 65,586.1 USDT to 66,679.6 USDT, an amplitude of 1.67%. Trading volume increased simultaneously, market attention significantly heightened, short-term volatility intensified, attracting a large amount of capital to actively enter the market. The main driving forces behind this abnormal movement come from large-scale institutional capital inflows and continuous ETF subscriptions. Data shows that net inflows related to spot and ETF funds exceeded $180 million, with spot and perpetual contracts

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued guidance on payment stablecoins on February 19, allowing broker-dealers to treat stablecoins with a 2% discount when calculating net capital, thereby giving them a legitimate status in capital calculations. This adjustment helps to integrate stablecoins into the mainstream financial system and promotes digital asset trading and services. Peirce's statement and the GENIUS Act could potentially change the market landscape, although federal and state frictions still exist. Nonetheless, this move paves the way for regulatory integration of stablecoins.

The JPMorgan report discusses the proposed CLARITY Act aimed at providing clear regulations for digital assets, potentially passing by mid-2026. Key issues include stablecoin yield permissions and conflict-of-interest rules, which are delaying progress.

The Qivalis alliance, composed of several major European banks, is planning to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin, aiming for a 2026 rollout. The goal is to provide a regulated, localized US dollar stablecoin alternative to enhance cross-border payment efficiency. The project adheres to EU regulatory standards, employs a 1:1 reserve mechanism, and supports 24/7 redemption, promoting the adoption of stablecoins in the market.

ChainCatcher Message, according to Jinshi reports, Japan's top foreign exchange official Jun Mimura stated that the surge in dollar-denominated stablecoins is very likely to strengthen the dollar's position as a key currency.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Gate market data, the dollar has strengthened against all major currencies due to rising oil prices prompting swap traders to reduce their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates this year. The market currently expects about 59 basis points of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, down from 61 basis points last Friday. Gareth Berry, a strategist at Sydney's Macquarie Group, said this could be an early signal that the market believes sustained oil price increases will lead to higher inflation pressures in the US, thereby reducing the Fed's willingness to cut rates. Deteriorating risk sentiment has also contributed to the dollar's rise, with S&P 500 futures down 1.5%.

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating around $66,000. The United States will release five important economic reports this week, including manufacturing and services PMI, ADP private sector employment data, unemployment claims, and non-farm payrolls (NFP). These data could reshape market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates and consequently influence Bitcoin's price movement. Strong data may suppress Bitcoin prices, while weak data could drive it higher.

NYDIG Research Director Greg Cipolaro stated that artificial intelligence could impact the labor market and prompt central banks to ease monetary policy, thereby benefiting Bitcoin. He believes that AI's economic impact will transmit to Bitcoin, with liquidity expansion supporting its performance, even though the transformation presents challenges. He expects AI will still follow a pattern of integrated development.

NYDIG Research Director Greg Cipolaro believes that artificial intelligence (AI) can be regarded as a general-purpose technology, and its impact on Bitcoin depends on its effects on the labor market and monetary policy. If AI triggers turbulence in the labor market, it could prompt central banks to adopt easing policies, which would be positive for Bitcoin; conversely, if AI drives growth and pushes up real interest rates, it could exert pressure on Bitcoin. The widespread application of AI may also change employment markets and investment patterns, challenging traditional economic structures.

NYDIG Research Director Greg Cipolaro of a crypto financial institution pointed out that artificial intelligence could drive economic growth and liquidity expansion, thereby benefiting Bitcoin. The impact of AI may lead to changes in employment structures, prompting governments worldwide to adopt loose policies and enhance the attractiveness of risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that although technological innovation presents short-term challenges, society ultimately integrates the technology, and businesses and workers who adapt to AI are expected to achieve higher returns.

Legendary trader Arthur Hayes analyzes the US-Iran conflict, pointing out that as military intervention prolongs, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to support spending, boosting Bitcoin prices. He reviews historical patterns and believes that when war affects market confidence, the Federal Reserve usually adopts an accommodative monetary policy, advising to wait and see, and to enter the market after the Fed's actions. Bitcoin and decentralized tokens \$HYPE become his preferred allocation choices.

JPMorgan analysts predict that the U.S. CLARITY Act will be approved by mid-2026, serving as a catalyst for the cryptocurrency market. The bill will establish a comprehensive regulatory framework but faces obstacles related to stablecoin yields and conflicts of interest. If passed, it will promote dual-track regulation, support new projects, clarify institutional custody, and impact the market, while reaffirming a long-term target price for Bitcoin of $266,000.

Arthur Hayes pointed out that since 1985, U.S. presidents have initiated military actions in the Middle East, and Trump continued this practice. He believes that prolonged U.S. involvement in Iran could lead to a Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting Bitcoin prices. The duration and cost of U.S. involvement remain uncertain.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until March is 93.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.4%. By April, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 22.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 76.2%, and the probability of a total 50 basis point cut is 1.2%. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 43.9%.