Monetary Policy

2026-04-13 13:45 to 2026-04-13 14:00 (UTC), the BTC price fluctuated within the 70945.9 to 71699.9 USDT range. Within 15 minutes, it recorded a notable gain of +0.86%, with a swing of 1.06%. Market attention has surged, short-term volatility has clearly intensified, and on-chain large transfers, spot, and derivatives trading volumes have expanded in sync, indicating that the activity level of funds by major players is at one of the highest points of the year. The main driving force behind this anomaly is that BTC has been probing the 72000–73500 USDT range with a large amount of leverage shorts

The Bank of Korea recommends introducing a circuit breaker mechanism in the crypto-asset industry to prevent abnormal trading, and points out that the Bithumb mistaken payment incident reveals a structural vulnerability. The governor nominee, Hyun-sung Shin, emphasizes that CBDCs and deposit tokens should be the core of digital currencies, and proposes a phased opening strategy for stablecoins. The Bank of Korea also plans to launch an offshore KRW system with real-time gross settlement in 2027 to reduce credit risk.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that although March CPI recorded the largest month-over-month increase, core CPI remained stable, indicating that U.S. inflation has not fully spread yet. Attention should be paid to upcoming PCE data. If the Iran-Iraq conflict continues, inflation could evolve into a systemic risk and affect economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising rates to respond.

Gate News message: On April 10, U.S. National Economic Council Director of the White House, Hassett, said the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened within two months. In addition, Hassett said the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

Gate News, April 10, according to Reuters, the market continues to price in expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.

Gate News message: On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. Looking ahead to June, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 1.7%.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

A cryptocurrency exchange became the first CEX to be approved for a Federal Reserve master account, but the account is restricted—access is limited to the Fedwire payment system, and it cannot earn interest. This move has sparked concerns about financial risk and transparency in the U.S., and regulatory experts warn it could affect financial stability. The exchange said it is complying with anti–money laundering requirements.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

Gate News message. On April 9, according to the latest data from CME’s “FedWatch,” as of April 10, the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.6%.

Gate News message: On April 9, Hasett, the director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said that interest rates should be lower. He expects that the current Federal Reserve chair, Powell, will not remain in his role as a Federal Reserve governor. Earlier news: Trump nominated Wosh to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, and the Senate hearing is expected to be held on April 16.

The Bitcoin options market has turned, with Deribit’s $80,000 call options open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing its $60,000 put options. The Iran–U.S. ceasefire has fueled rising expectations in the market for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin. If geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $100,000, but risks from the Middle East conflict still need to be monitored.

Gate News message, April 9, German commercial bank FX analyst Antje Praefcke said in a report that if Trump again calls for rate cuts, the U.S. dollar could weaken. The report said the oil-price shock triggered by the Iran war should gradually feed through to the price level. Even if the war ends, energy prices may not return to pre-conflict levels. Trump may re-apply pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates in order to boost support ahead of midterm elections.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes show that “some” officials supported raising interest rates, with hawkish language noticeably upgrading from January’s “several” officials, putting the crypto market under pressure from tighter interest-rate expectations.

Market expectations are that the U.S. February PCE data will show that inflation pressures remain, with PCE rising to 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year. Core PCE is expected to be around 3.0% year over year, above the Federal Reserve’s target. The Federal Reserve may continue to hold the 3.50%-3.75% interest-rate range in April, while rate-cut expectations cool.

Bitcoin has recently been trading below $72,000 and faces risks from the failure of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the Strait of Hormuz closing again, which has weighed on market sentiment. At the same time, Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that the likelihood of further rate hikes is rising, further affecting the valuation of risk assets. Bitcoin’s key resistance level is $75,000 and its support level is $68,000; the market is currently waiting for a clear direction confirmation signal.

Gate News update: On April 8, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes (FOMC Minutes) showed that several participants further pushed back their assessment of when rate cuts would happen to a more distant future.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes will be released tonight, as tensions in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalate and the direction of interest rates becomes uncertain. This article will explain the key focus of the minutes, the conditions for rate hikes, and the impact on the crypto market.

Gate News message: On April 8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9. Against the backdrop of intensifying conflict in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, this document will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as the framework they use to judge the balance of risks.