Crypto Macro News and Global Policy Updates

Gate News reports that on March 23, the US 10-year Treasury yield (a key indicator of the US government's long-term borrowing costs) rose to 4.423% during the Asian trading session, reaching a new high since July 2025.

Morgan Stanley strategists recommend maintaining a neutral stance on US Treasuries before the impact of Middle East conflicts becomes clear, noting that fiscal stimulus speculation has failed to drive a safe-haven response. Strategists emphasize that the Federal Reserve's stance is unfavorable for bond risk hedging.

Gate News Report: On March 23rd, WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) May futures rose more than $2 intraday, closing at $100.26 per barrel, with intraday gains exceeding 2%.

The Pentagon requested an additional $200 billion in military spending from the White House, which calculates to approximately 3 million Bitcoin, but faced opposition from lawmakers in both parties. The US can issue unlimited dollars while Bitcoin is constrained by a limited supply cap, making it impossible to directly finance wars with Bitcoin. This request has sparked discussions about the differences between Bitcoin and traditional currency.

US President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding the restoration of Strait of Hormuz transit, threatening to strike its energy infrastructure otherwise, causing significant global oil price volatility. Iran responded by threatening to retaliate against Gulf region facilities. Analysis agencies predict oil prices could approach historical highs, with market concerns over Middle East supply disruptions intensifying. Meanwhile, the US is releasing strategic reserves to stabilize markets, but inflationary pressure persists, and the global economy faces uncertainty.

Asian stock markets plummeted across the board due to escalating US-Iran tensions and surging energy prices, with South Korea's composite index down 4.71%. Japan, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies, was severely affected. The current market faces energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures, with interest rate cut expectations fading and even the possibility of rate hikes emerging. The crypto market has also been impacted, showing high correlation with equity markets.

Gate News reported that on March 23rd, spot silver fell more than 5% intraday, currently trading at $64.35 per ounce.

US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins proposed a new cryptocurrency asset regulatory framework that clarifies which tokens are not securities and simplifies compliance pathways through measures such as "startup exemptions" and "investment contract safe harbors," aimed at providing crypto enterprises with clearer fundraising guidance and signaling a policy shift in SEC oversight.

The U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on tokenized securities on March 23, covering topics including regulatory coordination between the SEC and CFTC, and compliance pathways for on-chain securities. Despite active deployment by traditional financial institutions, significant misalignment between policy and technology remains, core legal issues are unresolved, and blockchain risks have not received sufficient regulatory attention. Future development still awaits legislative improvements and risk mechanism refinement.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Fidelity Investments urged the SEC to enhance regulations for broker-dealers handling crypto assets, advocating for clearer guidance on trading and custody practices, while supporting the agency's shift toward blockchain integration.

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp pullback, with traditional financial markets showing signs of following suit. Rising US Treasury yields are pushing up borrowing costs, leading to decreased risk appetite in the stock market. Bitcoin's price is currently oscillating between $65,000 and $75,000, with market concerns persisting over future volatility. Investors need to monitor the correlation between interest rates and risk assets.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, VIX (VIX) has surged by 4.5% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News: On March 23, according to disclosure by Israel's Jerusalem Post, senior U.S. officials recently notified Israel and other countries that the United States "may have no choice" but to launch ground military operations against Iran's Kharg Island. The report cited two informed sources stating that the U.S. military is accelerating the deployment of thousands of Marines and Navy personnel to the Middle East region. This deployment includes the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, the USS Portland amphibious transport dock, and the USS Comstock dock landing ship, carrying approximately 4,500 Marines and other combat personnel in total.

Gold experienced its largest single-week decline since 1983 this week, with prices plummeting approximately $600. This decline was primarily driven by a liquidity crisis that forced institutional investors to liquidate positions, rather than weakening safe-haven demand. Capital flows are shifting toward private markets, emerging markets, and digital assets. While the long-term logic for gold has not completely collapsed, it's necessary to observe whether market structure stabilizes.

US Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned to outflows following seven consecutive trading days of net inflows, indicating a shift toward more conservative capital allocation. Bitcoin price briefly fell below $70,000, reflecting weakened market sentiment and capital flows. ETF outflows stem from market reassessment of the macro environment, as investors reduce risk appetite amid elevated interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks. $70,000 has become a near-term technical dividing line between bulls and bears, with technical indicators suggesting market confidence still needs to be restored.

Bitcoin and gold are expected to diverge in their 2026 trajectories due to differences in their buyer demographics: gold is primarily driven by central banks and significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, while Bitcoin is predominantly held by individuals, offering advantages in circumventing traditional financial constraints. Analysts are divided on performance over the next three years, with Lyn Alden bullish on Bitcoin, while Ray Dalio believes gold maintains the advantage.

Morgan Stanley analysts warn that if oil prices rise to $120 per barrel, it will threaten Asian economic growth, potentially causing a negative impact of 20 to 30 basis points on GDP, with oil and natural gas expenditures reaching 6.3% of GDP. Prolonged conflict may force relevant countries to raise interest rates.

On March 23rd, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.5%, impacted by declining stock prices of Korean chipmakers. This situation stemmed from an ultimatum issued by Trump toward Iran, leading to increased risks to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Despite the tense situation, investment heads called for maintaining caution.