ShizukaKazu

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Market Analysis and Outlook for This Week: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver
Recap of the Past Week: The market was both interesting and boring. Trump seems to have a script, almost daily posting to help the market draw lines:
March 30: Trump says an agreement is imminent, Bitcoin surges $3,000 in one day.
Same day: He mentions Iran’s new power plant will be destroyed, Bitcoin drops $2,000.
March 31: Trump says the war is nearing an end, Bitcoin rises another $2,000.
April 1: Trump states US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, Bitcoin increases $1,500.
April 3: Trump says Iran war will continue for 2 to 3 weeks, Bitcoin drops another $2,500.
April 6: Trump mentions US-Iran will discuss a 45-day ceasefire, Bitcoin rises another $2,200. Based on this pattern, the crypto market roughly shows this trend...
According to Reuters, as the Tuesday evening 8 PM deadline approaches, regional mediators have proposed a two-phase implementation plan. This is the fifth time the deadline has been extended within 17 days:
• March 21: 48-hour deadline
• March 23: 5-day extension
• March 26: 10-day extension
• April 4: 48-hour deadline
• April 5: extended to April 7
Notice a pattern? Each time the deadline approaches, Trump announces extensions to soothe the market. Once the market recovers, he again states no negotiations are happening, and attacks will continue. Will an agreement finally be reached this time? Or will Trump play games and break his word again?
Today, Monday, the overall market rallied due to heightened hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire, ignoring Trump’s series of crude threats against Iran. Trump announced he plans a press conference at 1 PM Eastern, mentioning Tuesday night 8 PM, but no further details were provided.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to fight for itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, restricting global oil supplies and pushing up crude prices. Due to local storage nearing capacity, Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 6%. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about 20% of global oil transportation. The UAE is preparing to assist the US and allies in forcefully reopening the Strait and is lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such action.
The International Energy Agency warns that even if the war ends in a few weeks, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and will require long-term repairs.
Therefore, if the situation remains similar in the coming days, oil prices are likely to stay firm. Key elements to watch in the next week include:
- Whether there are signs of sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or continued restrictions.
- Whether today’s Monday rebound can sustain or quickly reverse.
- Whether short positions are beginning to close or remain high.
- Whether US inflation expectations remain elevated.
Market Outlook for Major Assets in the Coming Week
BTC: According to the rainbow chart, Bitcoin currently shows no vitality. Candlestick charts indicate that if BTC repeats the past reflexive pattern related to US-Iran war conditions, its price range in the next week will remain within $2,500. If there is no substantial progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, it will negatively impact BTC’s movement. If progress is made, the market will cheer. Today, BTC price rose and may face resistance around $71,550; if it continues upward, don’t ignore the strong resistance at $74,000. If BTC moves downward, it could still fall within a $2,500 decline, with key support near $65,750.
ETH: ETH’s current trajectory is similar to BTC. Today’s price increase may face resistance around $2,230. If it continues upward, watch the $2,300 resistance level. If ETH cannot maintain upward momentum, support is around $1,980.
Gold: Gold remains a safe haven asset amid turmoil. It may rise over the next week, potentially facing resistance around $4,900. Support levels are at $4,646 and $4,390.
Silver: Silver may continue upward in the next week, with resistance around $77. If momentum is strong, it could temporarily rise near $81. If it declines, key support is around $66.
Important Elements to Watch This Week
- Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Substantial progress on the ceasefire agreement.
- US policy updates: whether they remain consistent or further schedule adjustments.
- US inflation and labor market data.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Do falling precious metal prices present a buying opportunity?
The escalation of the Middle East situation has heightened inflation expectations, disrupted energy supply chains, driven up military spending, and deepened geopolitical uncertainties. This should have created a favorable environment for precious metals as safe-haven assets. Conversely, since the conflict erupted on February 28, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have plummeted, continuing the downward trend that began in the last week of January. So, what has driven this downward trend, and what are the prospects for the future?
Inflation concerns have pushed up precious metal prices over the past year
Multiple factors contributed to the rise in precious metal prices from early 2025 to late January 2026, but fundamentally, they can be summarized as concerns about inflation. Factors fueling inflation expectations include:
First, core inflation above target levels: even before the conflict, inflation levels in most major economies, excluding volatile food and energy prices, were already above central bank targets.
Second, monetary policy becoming more accommodative: despite widespread high core inflation, nearly all major central banks are cutting interest rates.
Third, large fiscal deficits: many countries have budget deficits exceeding GDP, including Brazil (8.5%), France (5.5%), Mexico (4%), the UK (4.5%), and the US (5.5%). Meanwhile, countries like Germany and Japan are also preparing to significantly increase infrastructure and military spending, further expanding deficits.
Fourth, concerns over central bank independence: amid inflation above targets, easing monetary policy, and large budget deficits, investors are increasingly worried that central banks may be pressured to fund deficits through loose monetary policies.
Fifth, geopolitical uncertainties: rising trade barriers, reshoring of supply chains, nearshoring trends, potential conflicts in the Middle East and the Pacific, combined with ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted investors to allocate assets to precious metals for diversification.
However, this situation began to change in January when Kevin Warsh was nominated to become Federal Reserve Chair in mid-May. Markets believe he may adopt an independent stance on monetary policy and has long been opposed to quantitative easing, or at least cautious about it. Quantitative easing refers to central banks injecting liquidity into the economy by purchasing government bonds and financial assets. As concerns about the Fed’s independence waned, precious metal prices fell sharply. However, by the end of February, before the Middle East conflict erupted, prices had already started to recover.
The conflict proved unfavorable for gold, especially impacting palladium, platinum, and silver more significantly. To some extent, this seems contradictory. Consumer fuel prices like gasoline and diesel have risen sharply. According to AAA, U.S. consumers are paying nearly $1 more per gallon of gasoline compared to February, and diesel (and heating oil) is up by over $1.50. Given that gasoline and other fuels account for about 3% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), if fuel prices remain at current levels, they could push overall U.S. inflation up by as much as 1 percentage point in the coming months.
Additionally, price increases in other regions globally could be even more pronounced. For example, Brent crude oil futures on NYMEX last trading day are trading at $15 above WTI, and Oman crude on GME is over $60 above WTI. This indicates that Europe and Asia may face more severe energy inflation shocks than the U.S.
Buy on expectations, sell on reality
In the short term, rising inflation is not favorable for precious metals, for a simple reason: central banks are beginning to shift towards rate hikes. The Bank of England has hinted at possible up to three rate increases, and the European Central Bank has warned of potential rate hikes. Although the Fed still expects to cut rates by 25 basis points after the March meeting, federal funds futures have largely discounted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. Compared to investors still expecting larger rate cuts, the prospect of fewer or even rate hikes makes holding fiat currency more attractive than precious metals.
To some extent, the performance of precious metals in 2025-2026 resembles the trend from 2019 to 2023. From early 2019 to mid-2020, as market expectations for Fed rate hikes were lowered and the central bank ultimately cut rates to zero during the early pandemic, gold prices soared. Then, from 2021 to 2023, as inflation rose, central banks had to implement the largest rate-tightening measures since the late 1970s, causing gold prices to fall from $2100 to $1600. This is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario. Gold and silver accurately anticipated inflation rising in 2019 and 2020, but when inflation actually materialized, at least in the short term, it became a headwind because precious metals tend to have a negative correlation with interest rate expectations.
From late 2024 to early 2026, the U.S. dollar generally weakened, which in part supported gold and other precious metals, as they tend to be negatively correlated with the daily changes in the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index. However, since the Middle East conflict erupted, the dollar has exhibited “safe-haven” characteristics, strengthening relative to most other currencies and thus suppressing precious metals. Meanwhile, the overall market has shown a de-risking trend, leading to slight declines in stock prices, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets so far.
Future outlook
Many fundamental factors driving precious metal prices upward still exist. Most importantly, no major economy has taken measures to curb budget deficits. Additionally, the conflict may prompt many countries to further increase military spending to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. In fact, even before the conflict, the U.S. government proposed a 50% increase or $500 billion annually in defense spending, and recently requested $200 billion in additional funds to replenish depleted ammunition stocks.
On the central bank front, some may follow the Reserve Bank of Australia in shifting towards tighter monetary policies, but the tightening is expected to be significantly less aggressive than in 2022 and 2023. In fact, some central banks, including the Bank of Japan, have delayed rate hikes due to concerns that rising oil prices could slow economic growth. As central bank interest rates peak and market expectations shift towards easing policies, precious metals like gold are beginning to break out of the consolidation range seen from 2020 to 2023. In the future, as investors reprice the likelihood of central banks restarting easing measures, precious metal prices could see a new rally, especially if core inflation remains above target levels.#贵金属承压回落

#我的建议经验分享 Farewell to the Newbie: Seven Years in the Crypto Market, Survival Rules I Learned from 7 "Pits"
If you ask me what my biggest feeling in the crypto market is, I would tell you it's not the thrill of rapid gains or the panic of sharp declines, but the profound lessons from countless "pits."
Seven years ago, I entered the market with dreams of overnight wealth, imagining I could easily achieve financial freedom. But reality turned out to be a harsh teacher, using repeated "pits" to teach me what respect for the market really means. Over these years, it’s been like an exhilarating jungle adventure, and these 7 "pits" are the maps and compasses I earned with real money.
01
The Overtrading Trap: The Lesson that Less is More
When I first started trading, I was obsessed with staying "active." Every candlestick felt like an opportunity, every upward move like a chance to make big money. But I quickly realized that more trades don’t necessarily mean more profit. In fact, frequent trading often drained my wallet and increased my regrets. Do you remember me saying I had to participate in every trade? Yes, that mindset almost cost me everything.
More trades don’t equal more profit.
Looking back, I see that doing nothing is often the smartest choice. If the market doesn’t give you a clear edge, why force a trade? Would you rather make five mediocre trades or wait for a perfect opportunity? The answer is obvious now, but I only truly understood this after risking real money. Trading out of boredom is like chasing a rally without research — a disaster recipe.
02
Exhaustion is the Enemy of Trading
I wish someone had drilled this into my mind earlier: never trade when you're tired. I used to think I could stay up late staring at charts, observing the market like an eagle. Well, I was wrong. My decisions became as unreliable as a flawed smart contract. Honestly, how many successful trades have you made after pulling an all-nighter? Exactly, almost none. Decision fatigue hits harder than a flash crash. When you're exhausted, your brain takes shortcuts, and those shortcuts often lead to wrong decisions. Don’t trade when tired. I’ve repeatedly ignored rest, broke stop-losses, and neglected risk management out of stubbornness. Now, I treat sleep as an unnegotiable rule. If I’m not feeling well mentally, I don’t trade.
03
Don’t Break Your Trading Rules Easily
One of the hardest lessons I learned is that rules are not just guidelines—they are lifesavers.
Early on, I thought I was smarter than my trading plan. “Just this once,” I’d tell myself, moving stop-losses or increasing position sizes. Sounds familiar? It should, because every trader has been there. But the truth is: your rules exist for a reason. They are distilled from painful lessons. Breaking rules is like having no strategy in a bear market — destruction is only a matter of time. Discipline isn’t about perfection; it’s about doing the right thing even when it’s uncomfortable. I gradually realized that the best traders aren’t those who never make mistakes, but those who stick to their rules even when they do.
04
Emotional Rollercoaster: Managing Your Mental Energy
Now, let’s talk about something most traders overlook until it backfires: mental energy. Have you ever fallen into a vicious cycle of consecutive losses, where each trade gets worse than the last? I have, and it felt like trying to recover from a Rug project. Sometimes, the best move isn’t to make another trade but to step away completely. This lesson was etched deeply into my trading journey during a particularly tough period. I kept adding to losing positions, thinking I could turn losses into gains. What finally saved me? Rest. Stepping back gave me the clarity I needed to restart. After all, if your mind is as chaotic as a hacked exchange’s funds, what’s the point of technical analysis?
05
Risk Management: The Simple Secret to Survival
Let’s be realistic — risk management might sound unsexy, but it’s the foundation of successful trading. Most traders focus on entry points as if they’re the Holy Grail, but the real magic lies in exit strategies. Have you ever made a perfect entry but lost all your profits (or more) because you had no exit plan? Yes, we’ve all been there. Position sizing, stop-losses, and risk-reward ratios may not seem glamorous, but they are essential for survival in the crypto market. Think about it: do you want ten small wins or one big loss that wipes out your account? The choice seems obvious, but too many traders ignore these basics. Remember, in crypto, survival is victory.
06
The Monster of Ego: Staying Humble in a Bull Market
One of the hardest truths to accept is that the market doesn’t care about your ego. Nothing inflates a trader’s ego more than a big win. Suddenly, you think you can predict the top and bottom like a prophet, feeling like you’ve cracked the market’s code. But reality hits hard — the market always finds a way to remind you who’s boss when you least expect it. The market owes you nothing; humility is the only way to stay in the game. Trust me, your pride isn’t worth risking your portfolio for.
07
The Illusion of Advantage: Knowing When to Stand Aside
This is a somewhat controversial view — sometimes, your biggest advantage is knowing when not to trade. Too many traders force bets in areas they’re not good at, thinking they must stay active at all times. But ask yourself: would you rather make a mediocre trade or wait for your true opportunity? Set a simple rule — if I can’t explain my edge in one sentence, I won’t trade. This approach can save you from countless bad decisions. Remember, the market won’t run away. Opportunities are always reserved for those with patience and discipline.
08
Summary
At the end of the day, successful trading isn’t about flashy wins or overnight riches. It’s about consistently avoiding mistakes and preserving capital when the odds are truly in your favor. Next time you’re tempted to make a reckless trade or ignore your rules, remember these principles. They might not guarantee you to skyrocket, but they will help you stay in the game long enough to catch real opportunities. After all, in the crypto world, endurance is the ultimate winning strategy.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 This article teaches you how to use the three lines of Bollinger Bands (upper band, middle band, lower band) to judge market trends and find buy and sell opportunities. It also explains how to avoid pitfalls and manage risks. The content can be divided into these sections:
First, understand the “basic usage” of Bollinger Bands: It was invented by John Bollinger in 1983. The core is three lines — the middle band is the 20-day moving average, the upper band is the middle band plus 2 times the standard deviation, and the lower band is the middle band minus 2 times the standard deviation.
The channel formed by these three lines indicates the magnitude of price fluctuations: the wider the channel, the more intense the price swings; the narrower the channel, the more likely a quick trend reversal (78% of the time, narrow channels precede big moves). The middle band acts as a “trend boundary line”: if the price deviates too far from the middle band, it’s likely to revert back.
How to interpret “buy and sell signals”:
Trend signals: When the price breaks through the middle band with increased volume (more than the 20-day average volume), and three consecutive candles stay above the middle band, it’s a reliable bullish signal; breaking below the middle band indicates a bearish trend.
Reversal signals: When the upper and lower bands are very close (contracted by more than 20%), like “squeezed” together, it suggests an upcoming breakout — either a volume-driven move above the upper band or below the lower band. But don’t rush to buy on the first breakout; 30% of these may be false signals. Wait for the close confirmation for more reliability.
Overbought and oversold signals: When the price moves above the upper band, it indicates “overbought” conditions, and you might consider selling some; when it drops below the lower band, it indicates “oversold,” and you might consider buying a little more. Also, if the price stays outside the bands for more than 4 candles, there’s a 68% chance it will revert toward the middle band, suitable for short-term profit-taking.
How to use different trading timeframes:
Short-term (intraday trading): Watch 15-minute and 1-hour charts, use the 4-hour chart for the overall trend, set a 2% stop-loss and 3% take-profit, and avoid greed.
Mid-term (swing trading): Use 4-hour and daily charts, refer to the weekly middle band to decide whether to buy or sell. If the upper and lower bands are expanding at more than 45°, it indicates a strong trend, allowing you to hold longer.
Long-term: Use weekly and monthly charts. When all three lines are trending upward, consider a firm buy-and-hold strategy for at least 3 months. If the channel width on the monthly chart exceeds the maximum of the past three years, it could signal a market top or bottom, suitable for phased position building.
Don’t rely solely on Bollinger Bands; combine with other indicators: Relying on Bollinger Bands alone can lead to pitfalls. Use RSI, MACD, and volume for confirmation. For example, if the price hits a new high but RSI doesn’t, it’s a “bearish divergence” and likely to fall. If MACD shows a bullish crossover (buy signal) while the price breaks above the middle band, the upward move is more reliable.
Additionally, volume during breakouts should be at least twice the 30-day average; otherwise, it might be a false breakout.
Risk management is paramount:
Stop-loss and take-profit: After buying, if the price falls below the middle band, sell quickly — don’t hold through the loss. After selling, if the price breaks above the middle band, cut losses and exit. You can also sell in stages, e.g., sell 30% when the price hits the opposite band, then sell another 40% on a pullback to the middle band.
Leverage usage: When the price breaks the bands, reduce leverage; when the channel is narrow, you can slightly increase it. The higher the leverage, the stricter the stop-loss should be. For example, with 5x leverage, accept a maximum loss of 1%; with 20x leverage, only 0.25%. Never risk more than 5% of your total capital on a single trade.
Avoid false breakouts: For short-term signals (like 15-minute charts), always check the longer-term trend (like 4-hour charts). If the price hits a new high but the channel doesn’t widen or volume doesn’t increase, it might be a false breakout — don’t follow blindly.
How to handle special situations:
Extreme market conditions (e.g., rapid price surges or crashes): Increase the channel multiplier from 2x to 3x to prevent frequent false signals. If the channel suddenly widens more than 3x within 24 hours, be alert for black swan events and reduce leverage immediately.
Range-bound or choppy markets: Adjust the middle band period to 10 days for more sensitivity. If the price fluctuates less than 20% of the channel width and volume is low, consider staying out of the market and avoid unnecessary trades.
Black swan warnings: If major coins and Bitcoin’s channels expand abnormally at the same time with high correlation, it could indicate systemic risk. Prepare hedging strategies in advance.

How do non-farm payroll data influence cryptocurrency assets through Federal Reserve policies?
Bitcoin is essentially a high-risk, zero-yield alternative asset, with its price movements highly dependent on the global liquidity environment. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of global liquidity conditions, and non-farm payroll data is one of the core indicators used by the Fed to formulate policy. Its transmission logic is very clear.
1. Surprising non-farm payrolls directly reverse Fed rate cut expectations
The core goal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is full employment + price stability. When the labor market is strong and the economy is resilient, the Fed has no motivation to cut interest rates and may even delay easing measures.
Before the data release, the market widely bet that the probability of a rate cut in June exceeded 65%, believing that the U.S. economy was gradually slowing, inflation was continuing to decline, and the Fed might start a rate-cut cycle. After the 178k non-farm payrolls figure was announced, CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a rate cut in June plummeted to 2%. The market completely revised its easing expectations, re-pricing a policy path of "maintaining higher rates for longer." The April FOMC meeting is now highly likely to keep rates unchanged, significantly delaying the rate cut cycle.
For Bitcoin, a high-interest-rate environment means higher yields on risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries and cash dollars. Funds will flow out of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth stocks into risk-free assets, directly draining liquidity from the crypto market, which naturally puts downward pressure on prices.
2. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise together, suppressing dollar-denominated assets
Bitcoin is priced in USD, and the strength of the dollar index directly affects its valuation. Strong non-farm payroll data boosts dollar confidence, attracting global capital back to the U.S., leading to a stronger dollar index. Assets priced in USD, such as Bitcoin and gold, are passively devalued accordingly.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is regarded as the global asset pricing anchor. Rising yields mean a significant increase in opportunity costs for capital. Bitcoin itself does not generate interest, so in the context of rising Treasury yields, its attractiveness diminishes sharply. Institutional funds reduce crypto holdings and increase U.S. Treasury positions, further intensifying Bitcoin's selling pressure.
3. Leverage liquidations amplify market volatility
Previously, Bitcoin hovered above $70k for several days, accumulating a large number of high-leverage long positions. Investors generally held expectations of Fed rate cuts, with bullish sentiment prevailing.
However, the unexpectedly negative non-farm payroll data became the last straw for longs, triggering a wave of forced liquidations of long positions in the short term. This "longs killing longs" cascade led to rapid price declines, breaking key support levels.
Current core characteristics of the crypto market: macro-driven, short-term pressure
Looking at the current market, the crypto scene after the non-farm payroll data shows clear macro dominance. Short-term trends are completely detached from on-chain data, halving narratives, and other internal factors, focusing instead on Fed policy expectations. There are three main features:
First, short-term market movements are dominated by Fed expectations, with technical analysis temporarily invalidated.
Previously, Bitcoin oscillated around $70k with strong technical support. But after the non-farm payroll data, support levels were quickly broken. Market attention shifted away from on-chain holdings and fund flows to macro indicators like the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and rate cut probabilities. These macro data points have become the sole short-term market indicators.
Second, institutional funds are temporarily fleeing to safety, but long-term allocation logic remains unchanged.
After the data release, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of over $180 million, marking the largest outflow in nearly three weeks, indicating increased short-term risk aversion among institutions. However, in the long run, with Bitcoin halving approaching and deflationary supply expectations clear, global institutional demand for crypto assets remains. This outflow is a short-term rebalancing, not a long-term exit.
Third, market sentiment shifts rapidly, with panic and caution coexisting.
Post-data, crypto market fear and greed indices quickly dropped from greed into neutral or fear zones. Investors reduce leverage and trim positions, becoming more cautious. Short-term trading activity declines, and the market enters a consolidation phase, awaiting the next key macro data to guide direction.
Future trend outlook: short-term consolidation, long-term fundamentals unchanged
Considering the impact of non-farm payroll data, Fed policy direction, and the crypto market cycle, the following outlook is made for Bitcoin and crypto assets:
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Range-bound between $66k and $70k, difficult to break key support
In the near term, the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data will persist. Fed rate cut expectations will cool down, and the dollar and Treasury yields will stay high. Bitcoin will likely struggle to quickly regain above $70k, mostly oscillating within $66,000–$70k.
$66,000 is the recent low and a dense trading zone, providing strong support. Absent major negative surprises, breaking below this level is unlikely. Conversely, $70,000 will serve as a strong resistance, with rebounds likely to face rejection. Investors should control positions carefully, avoiding reckless buying or chasing highs.
2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Watch inflation data and await policy signals
After the non-farm payrolls, focus shifts to the March CPI inflation data scheduled for April 10, which will be another key basis for Fed policy decisions.
If inflation continues to decline, even with strong employment, the Fed may signal a dovish stance, and rate cut expectations could slightly rebound. Bitcoin could then resume a sideways upward trend.
If inflation rebounds along with strong employment, the Fed will likely maintain high rates, and crypto markets will remain under pressure, prolonging consolidation.
3. Long-term (over 6 months): Halving + institutional demand support
In the long run, the recent drop triggered by non-farm payrolls is just short-term volatility and will not change the core logic of the crypto market.
On one hand, Bitcoin halving is approaching, and historical data shows that supply-side deflation around halving often drives bull markets.
On the other hand, global crypto regulation is accelerating, U.S. spot ETF inflows continue, and institutional demand is steadily rising. Long-term, Bitcoin still has upward potential.