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Latest News: The US government has once again shut down, turning from a safe haven dividend to institutional exploitation. Could this shutdown lead to completely different outcomes than in 2025? In the investment world, the most dangerous thought is—"This time is the same." In October 2025, the US government shutdown lasted 43 days, and Bitcoin surged against the trend to $110,000, establishing its status as a "digital safe haven asset." But at the dawn of 2026, all macroeconomic logic has quietly shifted.
1. The underlying logic of monetary policy has changed: from "water warming" to "freezi

The four stages of a bear market and our current position
Most bear markets: the early to mid-term is characterized by "gradual decline + repeated torment," while the later stage often involves "emotion-driven accelerated decline (panic waterfall)," but not in a straight line, rather "rapid sell-off → technical rebound → further decline." There are also rare cases where the decline continues silently until no one is talking, but that is an extreme liquidity exhaustion phase.
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Bear markets are usually divided into 4 stages:
① Early Bear: Trend breakdown phase
Characteristics: High levels wea

How to do a reduction in information flow, so that your trading mindset doesn't get confused? The best approach is to only focus on trading cycles that are consistent with yours when browsing Twitter. The indicators should also be the same, and the trading targets you follow daily should be consistent. Don't easily get involved in new coins you're not familiar with. Also, try not to pay attention to those who are constantly spreading gossip or posting all kinds of provocative images just to gain traffic. Trading requires a flow of focus. If you are fully immersed in the trading field, you don'

If the trend must be completed, guess what will happen next?

🧠 An easy-to-understand short-selling structure—Three steps
Step 1: Confirm the decline first: it's not just a feeling of falling, but the structure is declining. How to see? Higher highs are getting lower, and lower lows are also getting lower, indicating that the bears have taken control of the direction.
⚠️ If the price is still oscillating back and forth, do not short.
Step 2: Wait for a rebound, do not chase the fall. After a decline, the price will definitely rebound. Where to focus? When the price rebounds to the previous break level, this level was support before, now it has become re

📊 Cryptocurrency Market · Today’s Observation (January 8)
I. Market Structure
BTC: Entering a correction phase
Altcoins: Generally retreating, risk appetite declining
US Stocks: Maintaining volatility, no clear direction given
Macro Supplement
The People's Bank of China continues to increase gold holdings
Current gold reserves account for about 9.5%
International mainstream central banks’ reference range is about 15%
➡️ Medium to long-term still reflects a preference for safe-haven assets
II. Market Hotspot Tracking
1️⃣ Binance Launchpad｜Chinese Meme: Life (RenSheng)
Binance’s first Chinese M

[爱心] Cryptocurrency Market Today’s Observation—January 7
1. Overall Market Trend
BTC continues to fluctuate, with altcoins moving in sync, and capital remains cautious.
MSCI has decided not to exclude crypto treasury companies from the index for now, providing emotional support for related concepts.
Morgan Stanley has submitted an application for a SOL trust product, boosting institutional expectations for Solana.
The US stock market continues to rise, with the storage chip sector surging;
Gold and silver are approaching new highs for the phase, with safe-haven and inflation hedging expectatio

🧠"Cryptocurrency Market · Core Variable Observation | 01.06"
1. Direction Variables | Macro and Policy — Is the Trend Changing?
Status: Neutral leaning bullish (not broken)
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 81.7%, with a 43.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp rate cut in March.
Multiple voting members signal that there is still room for rate cuts within the year.
The Bank of Japan and major global economies are simultaneously entering the tail end of tightening / structural shift phase.
🔎 Variable Conclusion:
Liquidity expectations remain intact, the

The market has rebounded and is pointing upward, but it hasn't been fully confirmed yet. The potential space is temporarily visible.