ToTheYUE

✨The US federal government's budget expired on the night of January 30, 2026. The failure of Congress to pass the budget on time still risks a partial government shutdown. The parties have not agreed on a budget; there are heated debates in the Senate surrounding security and immigration policies. The current political uncertainty can increase risk premiums, putting pressure on the dollar in markets and weakening global investor confidence. Prediction markets indicate that the probability of a shutdown remains high (around 65-70%).
👀 An agreement has been reached between Democrats and Republicans that includes a two-week temporary funding extension for the DHS (Department of Homeland Security). This has temporarily postponed a widespread shutdown, but the full budget package has not yet been approved. While agreements exist, the fact that the Senate and House of Representatives have not approved the same text, and that the House is currently closed, strengthens the possibility of a partial shutdown. This shutdown may be limited to a few days, but the risk remains high.
✴️Some essential payments, such as Social Security and Medicare, will continue to process, but application processes may slow down or stop altogether.
✴️While some agencies, such as the FAA, will continue to operate, staff may not receive their salaries on time, and flight delays may occur.
✴️Some programs, such as NIH and research funding, may cease entirely.
#USGovernmentShutdownRisk 🤔

#USGovernmentShutdownRisk
Washington’s Clock is Ticking: On the Brink of a Great Shutdown
​The risk of a U.S. federal government shutdown due to the budget impasse has become the primary agenda for global markets and Washington politics in the final days of January 2026.
​The Final 24 Hours on the Edge of a Major Shutdown
​The United States is once again facing the risk of "closing its shutters" due to a political deadlock in the fiscal year 2026 budget negotiations. As the budget deadline expires at midnight on January 30, 2026, the tension in the corridors of Congress has reached its peak, unsettling not only federal employees but the entire global economy.
​What is at the Heart of the Crisis?
​The current crisis stems from 6 of the 12 core budget bills being stalled in the Senate. Deep disagreements, particularly over the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget, have brought the process to a standstill. A critical vote in the Senate on January 29 was rejected 45 to 55. This failure caused the probability of a government shutdown on prediction markets (such as Polymarket and Kalshi) to skyrocket from 10% to over 75% overnight.
​What Happens if No Agreement is Reached?
​If a "Continuing Resolution" (temporary budget) is not passed by midnight tomorrow, the U.S. federal government will partially cease operations:
​Defense and Security: Pentagon and Homeland Security personnel are considered "essential employees" and will continue their duties, but they will not receive paychecks until the crisis ends.
​Air Travel: TSA agents and air traffic controllers being forced to work without pay could lead to massive airport queues and flight cancellations.
​Economic Data: Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will stop releasing data, forcing the Fed to fly "blind" when making interest rate decisions.
​Daily Life: Passport processing will halt, national parks will close, and federal court proceedings will slow down.
​Political Chess: Who is Saying What?
​While Republicans demand strict limitations on border security and immigration policies within the DHS budget, Democratic leader Chuck Schumer is throwing the ball back into the other court, stating they will not accept any bill containing such demands. The White House, meanwhile, emphasizes that a potential shutdown is a "preventable catastrophe" and urges Congress to find common ground.
​Conclusion: Clouds of Uncertainty
​While the memory of the infamous 35-day "longest shutdown" in U.S. history (December 2018 - January 2019) remains fresh, this new crisis at the beginning of 2026 proves once again how deep the polarization in the American political system truly is.
​The entire world is now glued to the breaking news from Washington: Compromise, or a dark halt?

#VanEckLaunchesAVAXSpotETF
recent news has once again proven that the bridges between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies continue to strengthen. The launch of a spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) for Avalanche (AVAX) by VanEck, a leading name in the crypto asset management world, holds transformative potential for both the AVAX ecosystem and the broader crypto market.
​Why Did VanEck Choose AVAX?
​Given that VanEck has previously offered similar products for giants like Bitcoin and Ethereum, its pivot toward AVAX shows this was no coincidence. This choice is closely linked to several key advantages offered by the Avalanche blockchain:
​High Performance and Scalability: Avalanche stands out with its rapid transaction times and low costs. Its ability to process thousands of transactions per second (TPS) and its Subnet architecture provide an ideal foundation for enterprise-level applications. An institution like VanEck aims to offer its investors an asset with a technologically sound infrastructure.
​Potential for Institutional Adoption: Partnerships between Avalanche and giants like JPMorgan and Amazon showcase the platform's potential for institutional uptake. Such collaborations likely contributed to VanEck viewing AVAX as a prime candidate for the "blockchain of the future."
​A Flourishing Ecosystem: Avalanche boasts a rapidly growing ecosystem across various fields, including DeFi (decentralized finance), NFTs, and gaming. This diversity offers investors exposure to multiple sectors.
​The Meaning and Expected Impacts of a Spot ETF
​A spot ETF allows investors to gain exposure to AVAX's price movements through the stock market without having to purchase AVAX directly. The potential impacts of this include:
​Institutional Capital Inflow: Traditional financial institutions and large-scale investors may remain cautious about direct crypto purchases due to regulations and custody challenges. Spot ETFs remove these barriers, potentially opening the door for billions of dollars in new capital to flow into AVAX.
​Increased Liquidity and Price Stability: The influx of new capital can enhance liquidity in the AVAX market and contribute to a more stable price trend by reducing volatility.
​Legitimacy and Mainstream Adoption: The issuance of an ETF for AVAX by a reputable financial firm like VanEck boosts the cryptocurrency's legitimacy and acceptance in the mainstream financial world. This serves as a confidence builder for retail investors as well.
​Heightened Competition: The success of an AVAX spot ETF could pave the way for similar products for other altcoins, intensifying competition in the crypto ETF market. Similar expectations may arise for other Layer-1 blockchains like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA).
​Analysis: Short and Long-Term Outlook
​In the Short Term: It is natural to observe some price volatility in AVAX following the announcement. However, the real impact will be determined by how much capital flows into the ETF and how sustainable that flow remains. General market conditions (the trajectory of Bitcoin, macroeconomic factors) will also influence short-term price movements.
​In the Long Term: A spot ETF brings AVAX to a much wider audience of investors and acts as a powerful catalyst for ecosystem growth. As institutional adaptation increases and blockchain technology becomes more widespread, it could be a significant factor in AVAX’s long-term valuation. This means Avalanche will be on the radar not just for tech enthusiasts, but also for conservative portfolio managers.
​Conclusion
​VanEck’s launch of the AVAX spot ETF is a new milestone in Avalanche’s journey. This step is critical for solidifying the place of cryptocurrencies in the future financial system. Such developments, which open the doors of traditional finance to crypto, strengthen the potential for digital assets to transition from "niche" investment tools to "mainstream" asset classes.

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