RexLiu

Information is what you know, knowledge is what you can act on.
Most of what you read is information.
- Prices, news, signals
- Easy to produce, easy to consume, hard to use.
The stuff that actually changed how I invest: a handful of frameworks.
- How to size entries
- When to add or not
- What conviction means versus hope.
Quality of input matters more than volume.
I keep relearning this.

A popular Chinese content creator died this week. Heart failure at 41.
I'm almost 35. Digital nomad. Four-year-old at home.
So I started a family health archive and reorganized all my investment accounts.
The questions have changed.
- How often do you monitor your health?
- How long can this portfolio run without me checking it every morning?
- Do my rules work on autopilot?
Restructured everything into three buckets: crypto, gold, stocks & ETFs.
Each bucket has clear entry and exit rules. None requires daily decisions.
Your portfolio's biggest risk might be assuming you have unlimite

Gold dropped 10% in two days. Markets in chaos. Iran war week six.
And we're packing for Chongqing this weekend.
The systems I built with OpenClaw handle daily reports, portfolio alerts, and alpha radar while we travel. I still make every decision. I just stopped babysitting the process.
Weeks of building gave me something better than returns: reclaimed attention.
Stay Invested in the Game 🐍

One of the best frameworks I've found for crypto cycles is from behavioral economists.
Barberis et al. (2018): when an asset runs hot, people assume it's structural. They buy. Price confirms. More people buy. Cycle feeds itself — until it runs out of new converts.
Then it flips. Same crowd, same logic, opposite direction.
BTC $100k → $74k in three months. The Goer-Upper became a Goer-Downer overnight.
But here's what the theory also says: the crash overshoots too. Because extrapolative expectations work both ways.
The question isn't whether BTC will recover. It's whether you're the one extrapo

This weekend Cardano governance gets tested when the treasury comes into play once again.
I've seen endless drama in the past few years.
While there are positive signs with Pentad, I care whether every proposal can allocate shared capital without turning the process into theatre.

Karpathy said the IDE is becoming an orchestration interface.
X is moving the same way.
This morning my agents had already surfaced market signals, draft angles, and one broken feedback loop before I opened the app.
So the edge is shifting:
- AI expands output
- selection protects taste
- public proof builds trust
AI lowers the cost of content.
It raises the value of selection.

What is most important for humans in the AI era?
My answer is: taste, experience, and trust.
- Taste represents your aesthetics
- Experience represents your knowledge and insight
- Trust represents your relationships
Record more of your life and turn everything into retrievable material, because your life is unique.

The biggest upgrade in my investing was a shorter filter.
After LUNA, FTX, missing the BTC ETF move, and years where my crypto book fell more than 50% from the peak, I cut the questions down to three:
- Did it survive a bear market?
- Is the upside worth benchmarking against $BTC?
- Can I still sleep with this size on?
More positions never made me safer.
Better filters did.

The textbook correlation: dollar up, Bitcoin down.
This week, both stayed elevated.
- BTC at $70,821 (as of Mar 6, 01:00 UTC)
- DXY pushing toward 100
- Coinbase Premium at its highest since December — US institutions buying into dollar strength, not against it.
Nine years watching BTC move with tech stocks, gold, risk-on sentiment. Correlated to everything.
The moments it decorrelates are the moments that define the next regime.

Three Cardano catalysts are converging before summer:
- Hard fork + Plutus smart contract upgrade this month
- @MidnightNtwrk mainnet late March (MoneyGram + Google Cloud as node operators)
- ADA spot ETF: Bloomberg pegs approval probability at 70%, window around August 2026
Meanwhile, my crypto allocation just sits silently from last October.
Everyone says "patience is the edge."
Turns out patience without repositioning is just watching.

In January 2024, I sold all my BTC at $40K the day the ETF got approved.
Two months later, I bought it back at $60K.
Same thesis. Different conviction. 50% more expensive.
I thought I was being smart — "sell the news, buy the dip." But the dip never came. By the time I re-entered, the market had already priced in everything I was waiting for.
Two years later, I still catch myself wanting to "do something" during volatility at times.
The hardest skill in investing is learning that doing nothing is the highest-conviction trade you can make.
That's why I'm laser-focused on everything