Malfoy

Right now, we can say that we're waiting for that big altseason again.
Although, something different is already happening.
Capital didn’t rush into random low caps.
It quietly rotated out of $BTC & $ETH … into other large caps.
That tells you everything.
It’s repositioning into liquid, scalable winners that can absorb size.
If you’re still only looking at microcaps,
you’re fighting the flow instead of following it.
Source: @wintermute_t

$BTC has been chopping for days and solid liquidity is now cramped up on both sides.
On the upside, the key zone to watch sits around $92.6K–$94K.
On the downside, there’s a heavy pocket around $89.8K–$88.7K.
This tight $90K–$92K range we’ve been stuck in for the past ~5 days doesn’t look good for much longer.
A move is coming.

.@Morpho is becoming the default lending rail in DeFi.
Over the last 12 months, they've had:
+ 257K monthly active users
+ 44% MAU share across top lending apps
+ ~2.2× @aave’s user activity
Holding nearly 1 in every 2 lending users for a full year tells you this isn’t a run.
It’s integrations compounding, vaults routing volume and users coming back because the UX friction is lower.
But users alone don’t win. The real unlock is borrow depth:
→ deeper liquidity
→ resilience
→ becoming the default route for vaults and treasuries
That’s the line between popular and infrastructure.
Data: @tokente

Right now, prediction markets are probably the best places to get information.
They pushed towards ~$1B/week, with liquidity clustering around @Polymarket and @Kalshi.
When depth concentrates, probabilities stop being opinions, they become the default reference.
Even @opinionlabsxyz spiked hard in Q4.
Meanwhile, @MyriadMarkets and @trylimitless look small on the chart, but they matter.
The endgame is that the winner becomes the probability layer, referenced across TradFi, media and crypto like a benchmark.
Source: @OAK_Res_EN

Days ago, @AerodromeFi pulled in around $200k in revenue...
And that’s just on one chain on @base.
Meanwhile, @Uniswap made about $40k the same day, spread across 38 chains, including its own.
Once Aero hits mainnet, the game changes.

Gmmm! ☀️
1st day of 2026 ☕️
Happy new year everyone! 🎆

People saying 'we’re not early anymore' are looking at $ETH wrong.
On ETH today, the bulk of transactional volume still comes from:
+ DeFi
+ CEX-related flows
+ MEV
Together, these three alone account for ~$10 TRILLION in YTD activity.
Now look at what isn’t built out yet... Payments that's processed just ~$68B.
That’s tiny relative to the rest and that’s exactly the point.
When payments move from $68B → trillions, the activity changes entirely.
Data: @artemis

Good morning, CT! 🌞
Can't believe this is the last GM of 2025. ☕️

A six-figure curve on @Polymarket without ever touching the event.
Wallet 033033033 doesn’t care about volatility, headlines or narratives.
Everything happens in one tight window, right before disputes open.
As a market nears dispute, price stops meaning probability and starts meaning resolution risk.
He scales into the side that’s effectively locked, lets the book rebalance, then exits.
• 410 executions in a year
• 2 losses
• $9 total downside
• Everything else = pure spread capture
• Some windows absorb seven-figure size
Just mechanics → PnL before the crowd realizes the market phase has alr

Crazy example by @KyleDeWriter shows why reading the rules > reading the headlines.
This @Polymarket market (Epstein blackmail evidence released by…) paid big time...
Not because of news, but because of wording.
+ Market only counted “previously unreleased documents”
+ Anything released before Dec 23, 2025 = doesn’t qualify
+ Most people aped YES after releases → price went to 99%
+ A few noticed the rule loophole and bought NO at sub-1c
One trader loaded NO at ~7c with ~$5.8k (33% of supply.
At peak, that position was worth ~$50k. Perfect entry/exit would’ve been ~4700% ROI.
🔗

You can move the price on @Polymarket but you can’t move the rules.
A whale aped almost $300k into YES at ~91c on Kodiak FDV > $50M, thinking size + CEX pump would carry it.
Problem is he didn’t read the fine print... settlement follows the most liquid market.
Deepest liquidity was Kodiak’s own DEX at 3–5c, while smart traders quietly loaded NO.
Settlement hit, rules won and about $200k evaporated.
🔗

2025 had a funny way of humbling narratives.
According to @coingecko, RWAs were the most profitable narrative this year, up +185.8% YTD.
It didnt happen because they were loud, but because they worked.
Meanwhile, the sectors that once carried the hype cycle (GameFi and DePIN) bled out -75%+ YTD.
Even the @solana ecosystem that had it's own mindshare all year, ranked among the biggest decliners.
Feels like one of those markets that quietly teaches you a lesson.
In 2025, the money followed fundamentals.

2025 have shown me some of the smartest people on CT.
People are making money off retail FOMO and it's on @Polymarket.
+ 118 projects launched via TGE this year
+ Around 100 are now trading below TGE
+ The median token is down ~71% FDV from launch
Most of the big 2025 launches were clearly overvalued on pre-markets.
Sure, there are still great projects. Some launches will do very well.
But if you look at the stats, the picture is pretty clear.
Pinned one of the top traders here:

GM to the holidays ☕️
It's Christmas Eve today 🪄🎄
Spend more time with family and friends 🧡

GM Legends 🌞
FOMC and Rate news today, stay safe!☕️

GM CT 🌞
Every new day is a choice 👌
Build wealth or remain where you are 😎