Many people are blaming PumpFun for no AltSeason.
Others are blaming VCs for no AltSeason.
But this is very different from reality.
There has never been an AltSeason without liquidity expansion.
Right now, business owners are struggling, people are unable to keep their jobs and savings have been wiped out.
This is not the condition where alts rally.
Also, the top 50 alts have 90%+ of combined market cap which explains there has been no dilution.
Once liquidity arrives, you'll see the same alts going parabolic.

People are calling that the 4-year cycle is over.
Some people are calling that the 4-year cycle is dead and BTC will pump again in 2026.
But there is some evidence which suggests that the crypto bull run ended in Q4 2024.
First of all, $BTC new ATH in October happened due to dollar devaluation.
In Euro or pound, BTC stayed at the same level as Q4 2024.
Others/BTC formed a top in 2024 and has been trending down since.
The biggest Bitcoin DAT, Microstrategy, peaked in Q4 2024.
Major caps like XRP, SOL etc. formed their top in Dec 2024 or Jan 2025.
This means, the crypto market has been in a bear

The December rate is almost locked now.
PCE came in line with the expectations, while Core PCE came lower than expected.
US companies have cut off 1.17 million jobs in 2025, which means the labor market is very weak.
But will all these help the crypto market?
First of all, Fed aggressively cutting rates have been bad for markets.
Also, unemployment rate spiking is one of the key indicators of recession.
Inflation is trending down, while growth is slowing down too.
This is what happens during deflation which is the worst possible outcome.
I think rate cuts won't be enough here.
The Fed will hav

ETH pump is a really good sign for Altcoin space.
And I'm not talking about ETH/USDT but ETH/BTC pair.
If you remember correctly, the entire Q2/Q3 rally in alts happened because ETH/BTC was moving up.
I'm not expecting a 100%-200% rally in ETH/BTC, but a 20%-25% rally is definitely possible.
And in that case, a lot of good alts will rally.
But how would you find them?
This is why I told you guys to pick alts which has been making HHs and HLs against BTC.
These alts will be the fastest horse when the markets goes higher.

Some positive developments have been happening in the past 24 hours:
The Fed has officially ended QT after running it for 3+ years.
$11 trillion asset manager Vanguard has now opened access to crypto ETFs.
US FDIC chief says the first GENIUS Act regulations are heading for proposal this month.
Strategy has announced a $1.4B USD reserve, putting a full stop on $BTC selling FUD.
The Fed has pumped $13.5 billion in US banks using overnight repo.
But there are some bearish events too.
China-Japan tensions are rising.
BOJ rate hike odds are going up.
US-Venezuela tensions are rising.
I'm particular

ISM came in weak at 48.2 today and that makes tomorrow even more important.
Powell is speaking, and his tone will decide how markets move next.
A sub-50 ISM reading means U.S. manufacturing is still contracting.
When growth data is this soft, the Fed chairman’s message carries even more weight.
If Powell acknowledges slowing activity and leans toward the need for more easing, markets will take it as a green light for risk-on assets especially crypto, which reacts fastest to liquidity shifts.
But if he stays cautious or signals that cuts won’t come soon, the combination of weak ISM + tight poli

If you are a trader, now is the time to look for outperformers.
Look at the Alt/BTC pair and spot those who made a higher low during this dip.
Also, spot alts that are recovering the fastest with every slight upward move in BTC.
These are the alts you need to pay attention to.
Nothing goes down in a straight line, so there'll be bounce backs along the way.
During that, the strong alts will yield the best short-term returns.
If you pay close attention, you can find some alts that will do a 50%-100% move in a few weeks if $BTC shows some rebound.