Jamesvanst

The market is now pricing in that rate HIKES are more likely than rate CUTS by March 2027.
I will be taking the other side of that bet.

Bitcoin is now negative for March and, if the month closed today, it would mark six consecutive losing months, joint record.

So bitcoin really was the leading indicator and the canary in the coal mine.
Who would have thought.

It took Silver 50 days to go down 50%.
In comparison, it took bitcoin 122 days to go down 50%.
Obscene amount of speculation in Silver, when I was told industrial usage and supply shortage.

It will be interesting to see how MARA trades in the short-term as they are retiring $1B of convertible debt, which had been hedged by investors shorting the stock.
As those positions unwind following the buyback, it removes selling pressure.
One of the main reasons, MSTR needs to clear the convertible debt.

The AI pivot continues, over 15,000 BTC sold from MARA (After buying the top, now selling near the bottom)
My calculations over 150,000 BTC have been sold from miners.
Another 50,000 BTC or so to go.

The AI pivot continues, over 15,000 BTC sold from MARA.
My calculations over 150,000 BTC have been sold from miners.
Another 50,000 BTC or so to go.

Death, taxes and central banks printing

$STRC at $99.98
Day 8 of recovery post-ex dividend
Should hit par today

At this rate $70,000 will be the biggest supply price bucket.
Huge support for the next bear market.

I've lost track on all the stuff that has happened over the past 6 months, and BTC is still holding 70k.
• Repeated US government shutdowns (liquidity headwind).
•AI eroding software economics, BTC 1:1. correlated to software, IGV with one of the biggest drawdowns.
•AI-driven job displacement accelerating
•NVDA down 15%, concentration propping up the market, (S&P 500 breadth now improving).
•Quantum computing threat
•MSTR unrealized losses hit $10B+/liquidation
•Jane Street manipulation
•Michael Burry Palantir short thesis
•Citrine Capital doomer report
•Stop-start tariff policy
•WW3 Mid

I've lost track on all the stuff that has happened over the past 6 months, and BTC is still holding 70k.
• Repeated US government shutdowns (liquidity headwind).
•AI eroding software economics, BTC 1:1. correlated to software, IGV with one of the biggest drawdowns.
•AI-driven job displacement accelerating
•NVDA down 15%, concentration propping up the market, (S&P 500 breadth now improving).
•Quantum computing threat
•MSTR unrealized losses hit $10B+/liquidation
•Jane Street manipulation
•Michael Burry Palantir short thesis
•Citrine Capital doomer report
•Stop-start tariff policy
•WW3 Mid

The game is so obvious.
There is always a taco, or a fed put just around the corner.
The market just has to find its max pain point.
Today was the bond market.
Tomorrow its something else.

Bitcoin tends to sell off on weekends because it’s the only liquid asset that can trade.
But once stocks get tokenized or start trading 24/7, we will have the ability to hedge and rotate against other liquid assets.
It will allow assets to behave normally and reveal what gets bid up or sold off in real time.
Bitcoin is always the punching bag for the time being.