JamesL0111

Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, rate policy still uncertain
The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve show that even though officials have decided to cut interest rates, there are still clear divisions within the Fed regarding whether to continue adjusting rates afterward. Some decision-makers believe that after the December adjustment, interest rates may need to remain unchanged for a period to observe changes in economic data.
At the same time, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors currently expect an over 80% probability that the Federal Reserve w

Bitcoin reached a historic high of over $125,000 in early October 2025, and has since fallen more than 30%. Due to the continued price slump in recent weeks, market speculation about a new "crypto winter" has been triggered.
Since 2011, the Bitcoin market has experienced four downturns where it fell from all-time highs to cycle lows.
The team at financial services giant Cantor pointed out this week: "Due to fears of the 'four-year cycle' and macroeconomic influences, the cryptocurrency market seems to be entering its first year of decline since 2022."
While the Cantor team remains optimistic a

As Bitcoin faces downward pressure within the year and company stock prices decline in tandem, Bitcoin giant Strategy (MSTR-US) led by Michael Saylor has once again chosen to increase its holdings against the trend. According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Strategy purchased 1,229 Bitcoins between December 22 and 28, with a total amount of approximately $108.8 million, at an average purchase price of $88,568 per Bitcoin.

In 2025, Bitcoin underperformed compared to gold and US stocks, drawing market attention. Crypto KOL XinGPT analyzed that the explosion of AI generative artificial intelligence has抢夺 the global electricity and computing resources, with the marginal收益 of each kilowatt-hour used for AI training temporarily surpassing Bitcoin mining; gold, on the other hand, provides "atomic-level certainty" due to geopolitical uncertainties; and the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs has also led to its volatility being smoothed out. He believes that when AI's marginal efficiency declines and capital liquidity

Digital Decay: Even Veterans Can Be Betrayed by Time
Facing seasoned traders who have experienced multiple bull and bear markets, Howells issues a warning about "Digital Decay." He points out that wallets created between 2013 and 2015, if not regularly tested for recovery, could have assets permanently locked due to hard drive aging or software format updates. He recommends investors follow the "3-2-1 Backup" rule—three copies, two types of media, one offline—and regularly verify whether the mnemonic phrase can fully restore the assets.
This warning is not unfounded. Howells' 8,000 Bitcoins, b

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate within a narrow range during the Christmas holiday period, market speculation about the direction of the breakout is intensifying. Cryptocurrency trend analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted the latest on-chain data analysis on social platform X, pointing out that Bitcoin has established solid support at $87,000, and the market tilt is beginning to favor the bulls.
Murphy noted that there has been intense chip turnover between $87,000 and $84,500, with $87,000 emerging as the strongest support zone.

Looking ahead to 2025, Bitcoin's technological evolution exhibits three core characteristics, which are also the key to understanding the following 10 major events:
Defense Forward: The defense roadmap against quantum threats has become clearer and more practical for the first time, extending security thinking from the "present" to the "post-quantum era."
Functional Layering: The high-density discussions on soft fork proposals and the "hot-swappable" evolution of the Lightning Network demonstrate that Bitcoin is achieving its architectural goal of "bottom-layer stability and top-layer flexibil

Why are retail investors especially prone to "water reversal"?
Compared to institutional and professional traders, retail investors often have the following characteristics:
Almost all are active orders
Order sizes are concentrated
Pace is not discreet, no order splitting
No hedging mechanisms
In highly liquid mainstream coins, these effects may be offset by other trading pairs; but in small altcoins, your orders are often the main market signals in a short period.
In other words, in small coin markets, you are very likely to directly become the counterparty to market makers.

Almost all mainstream institutions have set year-end target prices above $150,000 by early 2025, with an average expectation reaching $170,000, implying an annual increase of over 200%. For example, Tom Lee (Fundstrat) publicly discussed a potential target of $250,000, HCWainwright forecasted a year-end target of $225,000, and VanEck also provided a target of $180,000. The average deviation among these aggressive forecasts exceeds 80%.
Consensus trap.
When 90% of analysts are talking about "ETF inflows," this bullish factor has actually been fully recognized by the market and already reflected

Ray Dalio said:
"Making money your goal is meaningless because money has no intrinsic value. The value of money comes from what it can buy, but money cannot buy everything. A smarter approach is to first determine what you truly want, what your real goals are, and then think about what you need to do to achieve those goals."
"Money is just one thing you need, but when you have the money necessary to achieve what you truly want, it is no longer the only thing you need, and it certainly isn't the most important thing."

Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, recently proposed that upgrading Bitcoin to meet the standards capable of resisting quantum attacks in the "post-quantum era" may take 5 to 10 years. He emphasized that Bitcoin is facing a typical collective action problem.
"Making thorough modifications to the agreement and completing an unprecedented capital migration would easily require 5 to 10 years of time."
The lack of quick updates from the CEO means that every change to Bitcoin must go through consensus voting by global miners, node operators, and developers. This deliberately slowed mechanism constit

Michael Saylor once proposed the "Bitcoin Quantum Leap" perspective on the X platform, emphasizing that quantum computing does not necessarily lead to the collapse of Bitcoin, but may instead become an important turning point in driving the evolution of the Bitcoin network.
In his view, through the necessary technological upgrades, Bitcoin can not only enhance the overall security level but also potentially reshape its actual circulation and supply structure.
In a conversation with Alex Thorn, Saylor pointed out that the nature of quantum threats is not merely a cryptographic issue, but a test

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a decline of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing many investors to feel anxious, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend does not seem to have been extinguished.
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's "Realized Cap" currently remains firmly at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale withdrawal of funds from the market, and suggesting that the bull market structure remains solid.
Unlike the commonly watched "Market Cap" (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable

The report indicates that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin, after a two-year period of large-scale selling, are approaching saturation in selling pressure. As early investors' profit-taking pressure gradually diminishes, on-chain selling pressure is expected to ease significantly, potentially bringing a turning point to the market.

Approximately 60 million people die each year worldwide (based on a total global population of about 8 billion);
There are about 500 million Crypto holders globally (equivalent to 1 in every 16 people holding Crypto);
Since Crypto holders tend to be younger than the global average population, their mortality rate is also lower, with a conservative estimate of about 0.2% annually;
Based on this, approximately 1 million people (500 million × 0.2%) will pass away each year.
Currently, most Crypto assets are still held privately, and holders rarely have estate plans in place. Even if only 10% of d

For a long time, the biggest pain point for global investors (especially non-U.S. domestic investors) using U.S. stock brokers has been depositing funds.
The traditional wire transfer path is: local bank currency purchase -> SWIFT cross-border transfer -> intermediary bank -> U.S. receiving bank -> broker account. This process not only involves high fees (wire transfer fee + intermediary fee), but is also limited by bank working hours and the inefficiency of the SWIFT system, typically taking 1-3 business days.
Interactive Brokers' introduction of stablecoin deposits is essentially leveraging

Consensus Trap: When "Bulls" Lose Marginal Effects
9 institutions coincidentally bet on "ETF inflows," forming a highly homogeneous predictive logic.
When a certain factor is fully recognized by the market and reflected in the price, it loses its marginal driving force. By early 2025, ETF inflow expectations have been fully priced in, and every investor knows this "bullish" factor; the price has already reacted in advance. The market needs "unexpected" news, not "expected" ones.
ETF inflows for the year fell short of expectations, with net ETF outflows of $3.48-4.3 billion in November. More im

Madman says…
The Bank of Japan will decide this week whether to raise interest rates on the yen. Currently, on Polymarket, the odds of a rate hike are as high as 98%, which means that a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week is almost a certainty.
What impact does this have on Bitcoin? Looking at Japan’s recent rate hikes:
March 2024 (ending negative interest rates);
July 2024 (raising to 0.25%);
January 2025 (raising to 0.5%);
This time (raising to 0.75%) with a 98% probability.
The impact on Bitcoin during the previous three hikes was basically negligible, with no significant downward tren

Ripple Labs, after resolving the regulatory dispute with the U.S. SEC, is not only actively applying for federal banking licenses but also advancing the infrastructure development of its stablecoin RLUSD. Although the XRP price has risen, its actual application and economic benefits still face challenges.

FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that since November 21, there have indeed been signs of Bitcoin's local highs and lows gradually rising, but he emphasized that to confirm a rebound turning into actual capital growth, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization must break through $3.32 trillion, about 6% higher than the current market cap of $3.16 trillion.