IncomeSharks

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Age 3 Yıl
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Weaker markets are affected by headlines and news. Stronger markets could care less.
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Bitcoin being able to hold SuperTrend support through all of this is honestly pretty impressive.
BTC-2,16%
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$XOP - Oil stocks going down on a week where Oil has been going up is probably a more accurate indicator of where the markets think the prices are heading.
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Brokerages not willing to adapt to the new generation of traders reminds me of Toys R Us refusing to go online or Kodak refusing to go with digital cameras. The younger generation doesn't want to go in person to brick and mortars and they don't want to approve trades over calls.
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$COW - Looks like meat wants to go higher.
COW-4,57%
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You know how people started getting bearish on Crypto after October 10th? And the whole way down it was told to be a good buying dip opportunity because "everyone is bearish" was a counter trade?
Just a reminder that in a bull market the masses are really bullish and they are also correct.
I hope I'm wrong but stocks look like they could continue to do the same and people will keep saying "great time to buy since everyone is bearish".
I love countertrading sentiment but sometimes retail is right. When I see screenshots like I saw in the bull market of retail making a ton of money shorting I'
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I call it the Dunning Kruger Buffet effect:
Year 1 Trading: He's a genius, I know all his quotes
Years 2 to 3: I'm a genius, I have higher returns
Years 4 to 5: Ok maybe trading is pretty hard
Years 5+: Alright Buffett is pretty good at this
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$HOOD - Put yourself in positions where downside gets you excited, and upside makes you money. Since I can't predict the future but I expect $100 I don't really care what happens until then. If I'm wrong about downside I get paid sooner. If I'm wrong about upside I buy more.
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Single digit losses, double digit wins. Easier said than done but do this consistently and you'll be a profitable trader long term.
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The most difficult thing to explain on X is how being bearish doesn't mean you want numbers to go down. No one buys home insurance and then roots for their house to burn down.
I don't personally like roundtripping an entire year of bull market gains and when I see reasons to be bearish I play that side with hedges, going to cash, and pivot to survival. Losing a few percent or breaking even in a down year is as big of a win as doubling your portfolio in a bull.
All my upside in making money relies on the stock market recovering. I'm not going to make a ton of money on a crash but I will protec
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$SPY - 2022 fractal already still playing out perfectly. Even a bounce to 670 still on the table before a retrace. Bear markets are intentionally difficult to short for this reason.
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Oil stocks kept the S&P 500 up while things were bleeding (XLE and XOP). What happens now is they come down and the market at as a whole goes lower. Hence why OIL topping leads to more downside in the markets, not a bottom.
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In almost 100 years the price of OIL topping has never led to a stock market bottom.
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Rising unemployment and parabolic national debt unfortunately aren't part of an Iran peace deal. Economic data was looking more promising for a bit but now I think the market is starting to price in the potential for distress over resilience.
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Best advice for new traders to the markets:
50% of your trading portfolio in the S&P 500, 50% you trade. Profits you make go back into the S&P 500, and if you don't make profits then you just learned a valuable lesson early to just put 100% into the S&P 500 long term.
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Get the dip buyers excited with a bounce, get the bears nervous and have them close their shorts. Then continue the drop even further and get the dip buyers to finally sell for a loss and bears to re-open shorts at the lows then send the market back to all time highs in 2027
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Without a single headline, price action today was completely normal with a breakdown, re-test, on a Turnaround Tuesday to fill a gap. The market has already priced in this outcome, and it could be resolved tomorrow and stocks are still not in a good position.
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Here's what the V shape reversal from last year would look like if it played out again on stocks. That would be the crash you'd want to buy but you'll be terrified.
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There's an argument to be made that Bitcoin already made a bottom or is much closer to one while stocks are still trying to find one. Bitcoin crashed months before stocks did so logically would make sense it bottoms before them too.
BTC-2,16%
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$SPY - OBV not impressed with the move.
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