:#CPI数据将公布 Delayed release of the January US CPI data will unveil its mystery tonight at 21:30. This data, which was supposed to be released earlier this month, was postponed due to a five-day administrative process interruption, but unexpectedly became a market focus—it is not only the last piece of the inflation puzzle before the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting but also potentially a key variable that could rewrite the global asset pricing logic in 2026.
Reconstructing the "Time Value" Behind the Data Delay
Unlike the data distortion panic triggered by the 2023 fall shutdown, this delay is more of an administrative "time shift." The US Bureau of Labor Statistics employs a dynamic weighting adjustment model to ensure the coherence of core CPI statistics is unaffected by short-term disturbances. Market expectations generally are that the overall CPI for January will remain at a mild month-over-month increase of 0.3%, with the year-over-year rate slightly decreasing from 2.7% to 2.5%; core CPI will rise slightly from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month, and continue at 2.5% year-over-year, maintaining a "high-level stabilization" trend. This "pause but not chaos" data characteristic precisely confirms the Federal Reserve's baseline judgment of "inflation retreat but with a bumpy path."
Three Scenarios and Five Speculations
Against the backdrop of unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the impact of this CPI data shows significant asymmetry:
Scenario 1 (Baseline): Data meets expectations, market maintains the "first cut in July, two cuts for the year" pricing pattern. Gold prices may receive mild support, the US dollar index slightly declines, and non-US currencies gain breathing room.
Scenario 2 (Upside Risk): Core CPI unexpectedly rises above 0.4%, prompting the market to reprice the "first cut in September" expectation. Gold bulls face profit-taking pressure, the US dollar index may break through the 105 level, and emerging market currencies come under pressure.
Scenario 3 (Downside Surprise): Data unexpectedly falls below 2.0%, leading the rate market to accelerate bets on a June rate cut. Gold may break through the $2,100 per ounce resistance level, and the US dollar index continues its recent decline.
It is worth noting that after Powell steps down in May, the new Chair Waller's "hawk-dove" stance may cause policy disturbances in the second half of the year. However, during the transition period, the Federal Reserve is more likely to adopt a "stability-first" strategy—unless the employment market deteriorates unexpectedly, June-July remains the main battleground for rate cuts.
Inflation Stickiness and the "Dual-Track Puzzle" of Policy Pathways
Currently, investment bank consensus shows a "slightly stronger in the short term, still trending downward" characteristic:
Consensus level: Core CPI monthly rate remains around 0.3%, with an annual rate oscillating around 2.5%. New seasonal adjustment factors and weight updates will reduce historical data noise, making inflation performance closer to the potential trend of 2%-3%.
Points of disagreement: Wells Fargo and Canadian Imperial Bank emphasize the stubbornness of tariffs, housing, and service prices, believing core inflation will remain stably above 2.5% for the long term; Goldman Sachs and Nordea Securities are more optimistic about rent and supply-side declines, confident that inflation will return to 2% after 2026. Policy implications: ANZ Bank believes current interest rates are already tight enough, and inflation is sufficient to support earlier rate cuts; Fannie Mae Credit believes that the slowdown in CPI is not enough to trigger easing alone, with PCE and employment remaining key conditions.
From "Single Number" to "Structured Interpretation"
The technical highlight of this data release lies in the introduction of new seasonal adjustment models and weight updates. These technological innovations will make CPI data more accurately reflect the structural features of inflation—for example, the 0.4% month-over-month increase in used car prices due to tariff cost pass-through, or the 0.2% month-over-month rise in housing rents caused by rising vacancy rates, all incorporated into a more detailed structured analysis framework.
Market response logic has shifted from "single number worship" to "structured narrative": investors are more focused on the "hedging effect" between rebound in commodity prices and housing inflation slowdown, as well as how this structural change impacts the Federal Reserve's policy path. For example, if the month-over-month increase in commodity prices continues to exceed 0.4%, it may trigger concerns about the persistence of "tariff-driven inflation"; if the growth rate of housing components drops below 0.2%, it could reinforce the narrative of "inflation retreat."
The New Test of the Federal Reserve's Independence
The move by Trump to nominate Waller as the new Chair has once again made the Fed's independence a market focus. Waller's "hawk-dove" stance—emphasizing anti-inflation externally while leaning toward employment protection internally—may form a unique policy combination. This policy orientation is already reflected in market pricing: the probability of a rate cut in July, as shown by federal funds futures, has risen to 75%, while the probability of a rate cut in March is only 15%.
More profoundly, this affects the market's trust in the Federal Reserve's independence. Trump has publicly criticized Fed policies multiple times, and such political pressure could make markets more sensitive to CPI data reactions—any inflation data exceeding expectations might be interpreted as "political interference," leading to greater market volatility.
The "Triple Variations" of Inflation Path and Market Impact
Looking ahead over the next three months, the US inflation path may exhibit three variations:
Baseline variation: Inflation remains in the 2.5%-2.7% range, with commodity prices rebounding and housing inflation slowing down to form a hedge. In this scenario, the Fed may keep rates steady until Q3, with low market volatility.
Upside variation: If tariff shocks persist, with commodity prices exceeding 0.4% month-over-month, a "wage-price" spiral could be triggered, pushing inflation back above 3%. The Fed might raise rates early, causing stock market adjustments and a stronger dollar.
Downside variation: If housing inflation declines faster than expected or energy prices unexpectedly fall, inflation could rapidly retreat to around 2%. The Fed may cut rates early, leading to bond market rallies and a weaker dollar.
Among these three variations, the core market pricing variable has shifted from a single CPI figure to a more complex structured narrative—including the persistence of tariff shocks, lagging effects of housing inflation, labor market resilience, and political constraints on Fed policy pathways.
Reconstructing the "Time Value" Behind the Data Delay
Unlike the data distortion panic triggered by the 2023 fall shutdown, this delay is more of an administrative "time shift." The US Bureau of Labor Statistics employs a dynamic weighting adjustment model to ensure the coherence of core CPI statistics is unaffected by short-term disturbances. Market expectations generally are that the overall CPI for January will remain at a mild month-over-month increase of 0.3%, with the year-over-year rate slightly decreasing from 2.7% to 2.5%; core CPI will rise slightly from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month, and continue at 2.5% year-over-year, maintaining a "high-level stabilization" trend. This "pause but not chaos" data characteristic precisely confirms the Federal Reserve's baseline judgment of "inflation retreat but with a bumpy path."
Three Scenarios and Five Speculations
Against the backdrop of unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the impact of this CPI data shows significant asymmetry:
Scenario 1 (Baseline): Data meets expectations, market maintains the "first cut in July, two cuts for the year" pricing pattern. Gold prices may receive mild support, the US dollar index slightly declines, and non-US currencies gain breathing room.
Scenario 2 (Upside Risk): Core CPI unexpectedly rises above 0.4%, prompting the market to reprice the "first cut in September" expectation. Gold bulls face profit-taking pressure, the US dollar index may break through the 105 level, and emerging market currencies come under pressure.
Scenario 3 (Downside Surprise): Data unexpectedly falls below 2.0%, leading the rate market to accelerate bets on a June rate cut. Gold may break through the $2,100 per ounce resistance level, and the US dollar index continues its recent decline.
It is worth noting that after Powell steps down in May, the new Chair Waller's "hawk-dove" stance may cause policy disturbances in the second half of the year. However, during the transition period, the Federal Reserve is more likely to adopt a "stability-first" strategy—unless the employment market deteriorates unexpectedly, June-July remains the main battleground for rate cuts.
Inflation Stickiness and the "Dual-Track Puzzle" of Policy Pathways
Currently, investment bank consensus shows a "slightly stronger in the short term, still trending downward" characteristic:
Consensus level: Core CPI monthly rate remains around 0.3%, with an annual rate oscillating around 2.5%. New seasonal adjustment factors and weight updates will reduce historical data noise, making inflation performance closer to the potential trend of 2%-3%.
Points of disagreement: Wells Fargo and Canadian Imperial Bank emphasize the stubbornness of tariffs, housing, and service prices, believing core inflation will remain stably above 2.5% for the long term; Goldman Sachs and Nordea Securities are more optimistic about rent and supply-side declines, confident that inflation will return to 2% after 2026. Policy implications: ANZ Bank believes current interest rates are already tight enough, and inflation is sufficient to support earlier rate cuts; Fannie Mae Credit believes that the slowdown in CPI is not enough to trigger easing alone, with PCE and employment remaining key conditions.
From "Single Number" to "Structured Interpretation"
The technical highlight of this data release lies in the introduction of new seasonal adjustment models and weight updates. These technological innovations will make CPI data more accurately reflect the structural features of inflation—for example, the 0.4% month-over-month increase in used car prices due to tariff cost pass-through, or the 0.2% month-over-month rise in housing rents caused by rising vacancy rates, all incorporated into a more detailed structured analysis framework.
Market response logic has shifted from "single number worship" to "structured narrative": investors are more focused on the "hedging effect" between rebound in commodity prices and housing inflation slowdown, as well as how this structural change impacts the Federal Reserve's policy path. For example, if the month-over-month increase in commodity prices continues to exceed 0.4%, it may trigger concerns about the persistence of "tariff-driven inflation"; if the growth rate of housing components drops below 0.2%, it could reinforce the narrative of "inflation retreat."
The New Test of the Federal Reserve's Independence
The move by Trump to nominate Waller as the new Chair has once again made the Fed's independence a market focus. Waller's "hawk-dove" stance—emphasizing anti-inflation externally while leaning toward employment protection internally—may form a unique policy combination. This policy orientation is already reflected in market pricing: the probability of a rate cut in July, as shown by federal funds futures, has risen to 75%, while the probability of a rate cut in March is only 15%.
More profoundly, this affects the market's trust in the Federal Reserve's independence. Trump has publicly criticized Fed policies multiple times, and such political pressure could make markets more sensitive to CPI data reactions—any inflation data exceeding expectations might be interpreted as "political interference," leading to greater market volatility.
The "Triple Variations" of Inflation Path and Market Impact
Looking ahead over the next three months, the US inflation path may exhibit three variations:
Baseline variation: Inflation remains in the 2.5%-2.7% range, with commodity prices rebounding and housing inflation slowing down to form a hedge. In this scenario, the Fed may keep rates steady until Q3, with low market volatility.
Upside variation: If tariff shocks persist, with commodity prices exceeding 0.4% month-over-month, a "wage-price" spiral could be triggered, pushing inflation back above 3%. The Fed might raise rates early, causing stock market adjustments and a stronger dollar.
Downside variation: If housing inflation declines faster than expected or energy prices unexpectedly fall, inflation could rapidly retreat to around 2%. The Fed may cut rates early, leading to bond market rallies and a weaker dollar.
Among these three variations, the core market pricing variable has shifted from a single CPI figure to a more complex structured narrative—including the persistence of tariff shocks, lagging effects of housing inflation, labor market resilience, and political constraints on Fed policy pathways.
