CyrilDeFi

What I see with $ASTER ✍️

$BTC update - Jan 2
$BTC flushed hard, reclaimed structure, and is now basing above a major demand zone.
What stands out is the lack of panic follow-through. Every dip is being absorbed.
This looks like accumulation after leverage got wiped.
If BTC reclaims the $100k–$105k zone cleanly, momentum shifts fast.

ETH update - Jan 2
$ETH has been boring and that’s usually when it’s most dangerous to fade.
Price is holding a long-term demand zone that’s acted as a launchpad before.
Volume has cooled, sellers look exhausted, and structure is compressing.
ETH doesn’t need hype here it needs time.
Break above range and it plays catch-up aggressively.

Stock-to-Flow:
Say what you want about the model, but every cycle where price dipped below it felt awful in real time and ended up being opportunity.
We’re not in euphoric deviation. We’re closer to mean compression than excess.

$PEPE
As much as people hate hearing it memes are still a liquidity signal.
$PEPE bounced from deep demand, volume is returning, and price is building a higher base.
These moves usually don’t happen in isolation.
Meme strength often shows up before broader risk appetite expands.

Bull market peak indicators.
None of them are flashing sell signals yet. Not Pi Cycle, not MVRV, not Puell, not the Rainbow. Average progress is barely halfway.
Historically, tops don’t form quietly they come with euphoria, and stretched metrics.
We’re simply not there imo
That alone tells me this isn’t a cycle peak.
At worst, it’s a reset inside a larger trend.

Most people think Q1 is a BULL TRAP but here's what they don't know ⬇️
Behind the scenes, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to quietly absorb supply. Even on red days, net inflows show institutions are buying dips, not chasing tops.
This has fundamentally changed market structure demand is now persistent, not hype-driven.
Coins are also leaving exchanges at a steady pace. That’s not traders prepping to sell that’s long-term holders pulling BTC into cold storage.
Historically, sustained exchange outflows during consolidation phases precede expansion, not collapse.
Another thing most people miss: mine

No sign of weakness
Staring Q1 the right way
Hitting arms , shoulders , calves today
What you working on at the gym today?

On-chain is what keeps me calm.
BTC spot outflows are still dominant.
Coins are leaving exchanges while price chops that’s usually accumulation happening quietly, not people racing to exit.

The whale vs retail data says the same thing.
Retail is nervous.
Whales are doing the opposite.
That divergence has been a recurring theme at important bottoms and mid-cycle resets.
Take notes ✍️

$BTC update - Jan 1
had a violent reset, no doubt.
But what I’m seeing now looks like stabilization, not panic.
We already flushed leverage.
This range feels like the market catching its breath after an overheated run
Bullish on BTC for 2026 🚀