AxelAdlerJr

Realized losses hit cycle extremes. But coins still are not moving.
That is not what a typical breakdown looks like.
Something is changing under the surface.
☕️ Adler AM #130 👇

Risk OFF remains active.

USDT + USDC market cap just reversed from -$8.1B to +$4.5B - but exchange inflow is still stuck at 0.68x of normal.
Liquidity returned first. Will BTC be next?
☕️ Morning Brief 129 👇

In today's SQL of the Week - a new 2026 model that helps assess how overloaded exchanges are with coins sitting at a loss. This model delivers more real insights than classic on-chain metrics like Exchange Inflow. At the peak of the current cycle it recorded maximum LTH activity, showed the scale and depth of the latest capitulation, and revealed several additional structural signals that are hard to spot with the naked eye.
Full model breakdown and live chart - inside the issue.👇

The main volume of Bitcoin supply is now concentrated in the $75K-$90K range. This is the key cost basis zone where the market will decide whether it acts as support or resistance.

Bitcoin Spot Volume (Weekly Timeframe): Price is rising, while volume is declining.

Reminder: today’s FOMC decision is at 2:00 PM ET.
Powell’s press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: -74% from the October peak. aSOPR: below 1.0 for 55 days straight. Overheating is gone. But sellers aren't done yet.
Full breakdown ☕️ Adler AM #128 👇

The Cycle Extremes Index has reached 67.7% - entering the Bear Extreme zone.
Bitcoin is now trading 40% below its ATH. The indicator shows an extreme bearish deviation across on-chain metrics - historically, levels like this have aligned more often with accumulation zones than with continued downside. As long as no black swan event hits the market.

ETF flows have turned higher after February’s capitulation. But there’s a problem: BTC is still trading $5,174 below the ETF Realized Price, which means the ETF cohort remains underwater.
Demand is back. But the ceiling - the ETF Realized Price around $80K - is already close.
☕️ Morning Brief 127 👇

Two weeks ago, bears owned the tape.
Bitcoin was trading below Fair Value, with the model pinned in Bear Regime.
Today, the structure has fully flipped.
Price is back above Fair Value, and the bearish control is broken.
☕️ Morning Brief 126 👇

Bitcoin’s 2026-2031 price forecast is live - and the updated Weekly Engine is nearing a critical stress transition.
What’s confirmed, what’s still at risk, and what the system signals for next week - in Adler Insight Report #87 👇

Bulls need to try and regain control of the futures market.

The 30-day average Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10% - matching the extreme pessimism seen during the COVID crash and the LUNA collapse.
Sentiment is now deeply compressed. For market structure to stabilize, Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim higher price levels.

Oil remains the main source of pressure: higher prices are reinforcing inflation risks and constraining risk appetite. Against this backdrop, yields are rising, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, and the market continues to scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Additional downside pressure is coming from concerns around private credit and new U.S. trade investigations.
At the same time, the latest scorecard still does not point to a full breakdown:
Total Raw Score: -0.35
Regime: Balanced the pressure is coming through asset repricing, but the signal remains weak
Bottom line: conditions for

Selling pressure is 6x below cycle norm - while price holds $67K-$72K. The model sees accumulation.
☕️ Morning Brief 125 👇

AI can be used to create these kinds of morning brief slides. They’ll all have simplified graphics and a consistent style.
What do you think?

Today's Morning Brief is different. We're publishing data from the LTH Realized Supply model for the first time as part of Adler AM⚡️Extra and immediately putting it to work: is the bottom of this cycle already behind us, or is the market just entering its final phase?
I'd recommend setting everything aside for 10 minutes - this one is worth it.
☕️ Adler AM ⚡️ Extra 👇

Final issue of On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans is out.
How to combine on-chain metrics into one framework - and what to do when they contradict each other.
3 questions. 1 decision process.
⛳️ Part 9 (Final) 👇