AxelAdlerJr

One market stress signal just normalized. Another snapped back within 48 hours.
Exchange outflow peaked at -15,216 BTC in March and is now near zero. ETF flows crashed -29,539 BTC on Apr 7, then recovered to +1,835 BTC on a 7D basis by Apr 9.
Stabilization is here. Impulse is not.
☕️ Morning Brief 145 👇

Seller pressure eased. But the reversal still isn't confirmed.
Net Taker Volume 30DMA rebounded to +0.73 after touching zero. Liquidations Dominance 30DMA is sitting near multi-month lows at 9.4.
The structure looks cleaner. Whether that turns into a real shift is the key question.
Full breakdown ADLER AM #144👇

Now live 👇

Bitcoin bounced hard.
Futures are already signaling recovery.
Market structure still refuses to confirm it.
Morning Brief 143 👇

🔴 Bitcoin funding rate just dropped to -0.43% the most negative reading in two weeks.
At the same time, the Regime Score flipped positive: +14.1 after 13 straight bearish days.
Two signals. Opposite directions. One of them is wrong.
Morning Brief #141 - full breakdown at the link 👇

Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel on Thursday after President Trump said the war with Iran could last for several weeks and warned that the United States would strike Iran very hard. Both WTI and Brent rose by more than 6%, respectively.

Fear & Greed is now showing almost the same sentiment structure as in 2022. But the 365DMA is still too high for a full bear-market reset.

Bitcoin has already absorbed -$64.2B in realized losses since October 2025.
That sounds brutal.
But the 2021-2022 bear market absorbed -$125.2B. That distinction matters more than most investors realize.
Morning Brief 139 👇

Most traders/investors watch price. Very few ask whether that move is actually supported by capital.
This model does. It separates Bitcoin into 5 market states and shows which ones historically delivered the best long entries, which ones marked late-cycle risk, and where rebound setups usually appeared.
That is the difference between following the cycle and getting trapped inside it.
SQL of the Week #018 👇

The morning tone across global markets looks positive: Asia and Europe are driving the bullish impulse, while the U.S. and crypto are only cautiously confirming the broader improvement in sentiment.

Bitcoin Profit Structure Has Not Reset Yet via @cryptoquant_com

Price is down. Network spending is not. 532K daily spending transactions vs 473K SMA-30D. Meanwhile, dolphins, whales and fish still hold 68% of all BTC supply. Coins are moving. But the structure still doesn't look like capitulation.
☕️ Adler AM #138 👇

Sales pressure is rising. If Bitcoin drops to $54K Realized Price - it goes abnormal.

Bitcoin is not decoupling from equities. It's just getting weaker.
New ☕️ Adler AM 👇