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The liquidation map shows us the key levels for the coming week.
Below: Clear support in the 90,000-88,000 zone.
There is a cushion of liquidations down to 88,000-87,000 that would act as a rebound area.
Above: The magnet is at 94,000-98,000.
That whole area is loaded with pending liquidations. The price will want to move towards them.
What I see as most likely: a correction towards 89,000 this weekend or Monday, a rebound, and then an attack on the 94,000-98,000 area after the rate cuts.
However, the 97,000-98,000 zone will be very difficult to cross in one go. Most likely, we’ll have to cons
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COMPLETE CRYPTO ANALYSIS 👇
End of the correction?
Bitcoin:
There was an attempt to break the previous high, but momentum was lost and a correction is starting. The first point of the correction was to target the previous best price zone. That area has already been reached.
If we use Fibonacci on the engulfing candle and set it at 50%, one of the most interesting first levels to look for a bounce would be 89,106.
The price will likely seek out that zone (89,000-88,000) to then break the high with strength and target 98,000.
Probable scenario: over the weekend, Monday, or Tuesday, see those 89,
BTC0.58%
ETH1%
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In the short term, $BTC is at a strong resistance level that we have already tested four times without being able to break it.
This time could be the one, because a lot of liquidity has accumulated above.
That squeeze could push $BTC toward the 98-100k zone.
This is exactly what we have been anticipating and working on in the club this week.
BTC0.58%
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Rate cut practically confirmed for December.
The ADP data came out spectacularly bad. And in the current context, bad employment data is good for the market.
Why? Because it increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates next week.
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While retail is selling in fear, whales have accumulated over 90K BTC in the last 30 days.
Retail doesn't believe in the recovery. They think we're in a bear market and use every bounce to sell.
Whales are doing the exact opposite: they are buying.
BTC0.58%
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Bitcoin forming a floor structure
Bitcoin shows typical volume of bottom formation: halted at lows, volume jumped yesterday and today buyers are entering.
The entire drop from yesterday has practically been recovered. Strong buying power defending lows in the 0.786-0.886 Fibonacci zone (82-83k). The lows have been tested and are holding.
What are we looking for now?
Break of the local maximum to confirm two rising lows. This gives us the W pattern, the typical market bottom formation.
BTC0.58%
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Bitcoin in key support zone.
We start December with a significant correction. With no headline, for no apparent reason. It simply falls.
The price drop doesn't seem unusual to me. We were expecting it to test those lows again. What's interesting is how it's falling.
In this Glassnode image, it is very clear where we are. The price of Bitcoin is right in the zone where several key metrics converge:
- True Market Mean (green media)
- Active Realized Price (yellow media)
- Short-Term Holders Cost Basis (red media)
All these averages have historically acted as support in bullish market
BTC0.58%
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Hendria21vip:
great
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Something in crypto has BROKEN.
On 10/10, some Market Maker went bankrupt.
An operational bankruptcy:
The MM suffers such large losses that it can no longer operate, but the company still exists (is not legally bankrupt, so it has no obligation to disclose anything publicly).
This would cause 20-40% of market making to disappear (increased volatility of x2-x4).
The risk falls on the rest of MM that may be "touched" taking a step back, as they do not want to assume that risk in the current situation.
This lack of market creation leads to an increase in volatility and an increase in the Sell Of
BTC0.58%
ETH1%
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Watch out for this data.
When Bitcoin closes the month of November in red, it has historically also closed the month of December in red.
It's time to break this streak, I think we could see a green December.
BTC0.58%
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If you invert the BTC chart, you would go short, not long.
I had to do it, sorry.
BTC0.58%
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Renko Chart BTC:
Do you really think this is so outrageous? 👇
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If you thought that BTC would reach 150,000$ this cycle....
At $126,000 you had a +18% if it arrived.
- At the lows of $80,000 a +85%.
- Today a +64%.
I call that opportunity.
No one wants to buy opportunities, only certainties.
BTC0.58%
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According to the new analysis by JP Morgan, the SP500 will reach $7,500 by the end of 2026.
This would be very positive for bitcoin, crypto, and the rest of the markets.
In this analysis, they also answer the question "Are stocks too expensive?"
This is JP Morgan's response:
"First, companies are making a lot of money. They have been growing over 10% in profits for an entire year. Moreover, these earnings are the primary drivers of the increases in the U.S. market compared to other global markets.
And all of this is happening in a complicated environment: interest rates above 4% for three
BTC0.58%
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My thesis on Bitcoin: We will see a bounce back that could take us to $97,000-$100,000.
Although there are two possible paths:
1. Correction before uploading
Retracement to $84,000-$83,000 (zone 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci) to build a floor structure and then attack $93,000-$97,000.
2. Direct impulse
Break the previous high from here and go straight to $93,000 without prior correction.
There is a lot of short liquidity waiting above $97,000 acting like a magnet.
BTC0.58%
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Check the liquidation map.
There is practically no liquidity below. Everything has been absorbed during the drop.
But there is a lot of gasoline accumulated above.
First zone: $89,000-$92,000.
Second zone: $95,000-$98,000.
The rebound could continue straight up. Or it could pull back to $82,000-$84,000 before then attacking the upper zones with more strength.
Both scenarios are valid. But the liquidity is clear: everything points upwards.
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Stop trying to buy the bottoms ❌
Ask yourself this question:
How much do I think "X" will be worth in 5/12 months?
Accumulate and sell according to your analysis.
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Bitcoin is falling toward the True Market Mean (blue line).
Historically, every time the price touches this line, significant market bottoms are formed. In 2018 and 2022, we marked lows exactly there.
The AVIV Ratio (upper yellow line) is turning down from highs. This indicates we are entering a zone of maximum pain and capitulation.
When the price touches the True Market Mean with the AVIV Ratio dropping from these levels, macro bottoms have historically formed.
We are at the last support before losing the structure completely.
BTC0.58%
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Pay close attention to this.
Liquidations are COMPLETELY unbalanced:
If Bitcoin drops to 71K, $860 million will be liquidated. If it rises to 100K, $10 BILLION will be liquidated.
BTC0.58%
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First snowfall, time to put snow tires on my cars ❄️☃️
Winter is my favorite season, it boosts my focus.
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The most important reason for the drops, the rate cuts...
Sometimes everything is simpler than it seems. And they have just shot up 👇
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