Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio was recently invited to speak and participate in a discussion at the Oxford Union in the UK, focusing on changes in the global order, debt cycles, the rise and fall of great powers, and the impact of technology. When it came to US-China relations, the host brought up one of the main concerns of the public: Taiwan. In his response, Dalio did not make any emotional comments. Instead, he approached the topic from the perspective of his long-term research on historical cycles and Chinese political culture, explaining Taiwan's place in the Chinese mindset and assessing whether Taiwan is currently likely to become the flashpoint for a military conflict between the US and China.
Background of connecting with China: to understand Taiwan, you must first understand China
Dalio reflected on his initial experiences traveling to China in the mid-1980s, describing how his early curiosity evolved through exchanges with local leaders and historians, gradually leading him to understand how China views the world. He emphasized that in order to understand how modern China regards Taiwan, it is essential to first recognize its political...