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#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Market Analysis and Outlook for This Week: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver
Recap: The past week in the markets was both interesting and boring. Trump seems to have a script, almost daily posting to help shape the market trend:
March 30: Trump said a deal was close, causing Bitcoin to surge $3,000 in one day.
Same day, March 30: He announced a new Iranian power plant would be destroyed, causing Bitcoin to plummet $2,000.
March 31: Trump said the war was nearing an end, and Bitcoin rose another $2,000.
April 1: Trump stated US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, and Bitcoin increased by $1,500.
April 3: Trump said the Iran war would last another 2 to 3 weeks, and Bitcoin dropped another $2,500.
April 6: Trump announced a 45-day ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran, and Bitcoin rose another $2,200. Based on this pattern, the crypto market roughly shows this trend...
According to Reuters, as the Tuesday night 8 PM deadline approaches, regional mediators proposed a two-phase implementation plan. This is the fifth time the deadline has been extended within 17 days:
• March 21: 48-hour deadline
• March 23: 5-day extension
• March 26: 10-day extension
• April 4: 48-hour deadline
• April 5: extended to April 7
Notice a pattern? Each time the deadline approaches, Trump announces extensions to soothe the market. Once the market recovers, he again states no negotiations are happening, and attacks will continue. Will an agreement finally be reached this time? Or will Trump play games and break his word again?
Today, Monday, the overall market is buoyed by hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire, ignoring Trump's series of crude threats against Iran. Trump said he plans to hold a press conference at 1 PM Eastern Time Monday afternoon, mentioning Tuesday night 8 PM, but without further details.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to fight for itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, restricting global oil supply and pushing up crude prices. Due to local oil storage nearing capacity, Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 6%. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about 20% of global oil transportation. The UAE is preparing to assist the US and allies in forcefully reopening the strait and is lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such action.
The International Energy Agency warns that even if the war ends in a few weeks, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and will require long-term repairs.
Therefore, if the situation remains similar in the coming days, oil prices are likely to stay firm. Elements to watch in the next week include:
- Whether there are signs of sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or continued restrictions.
- Whether the Monday rebound can sustain or quickly retreat. Are short positions beginning to close, or are they still high?
- Whether US inflation expectations remain elevated.
Market Outlook for Major Assets in the Coming Week
BTC: According to the rainbow chart, Bitcoin currently shows no vitality. Candlestick charts indicate that if BTC repeats past reflexive patterns related to US-Iran war conditions, its price range in the next week will stay within $2,500. If there is no substantial progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, it will negatively impact BTC movement. If progress is made, the market will cheer. Today, BTC price rose and may face resistance near $71,550; if the price continues upward, do not ignore the strong resistance at $74,000. If BTC moves downward, it could still fall within a $2,500 decline, with key support around $65,750.
ETH: ETH and BTC are currently following similar trajectories. Today, ETH price rose and may face resistance near $2,230. If it continues upward, watch the $2,300 resistance level. If ETH cannot maintain upward momentum, support is around $1,980.
Gold: Gold remains a safe-haven asset amid turmoil. It may rise over the next week, possibly facing resistance at $4,900. Support levels are at $4,646 and $4,390.
Silver: Silver may continue upward in the next week, with resistance around $77. If momentum is strong, it could temporarily rise near $81. If it declines, key support is around $66.
Key Elements Influencing the Market This Week:
- Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Substantial progress on the ceasefire agreement.
- US policy updates: maintaining consistency or further schedule adjustments.
- US inflation and labor market data
Recap of the Past Week: The market was both interesting and boring. Trump seems to have a script, almost daily posting to help the market draw lines:
March 30: Trump says an agreement is imminent, Bitcoin surges $3,000 in one day.
Same day: He mentions Iran’s new power plant will be destroyed, Bitcoin drops $2,000.
March 31: Trump says the war is nearing an end, Bitcoin rises another $2,000.
April 1: Trump states US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, Bitcoin increases $1,500.
April 3: Trump says Iran war will continue for 2 to 3 weeks, Bitcoin drops another $2,500.
April 6: Trump mentions US-Iran will discuss a 45-day ceasefire, Bitcoin rises another $2,200. Based on this pattern, the crypto market roughly shows this trend...
According to Reuters, as the Tuesday evening 8 PM deadline approaches, regional mediators have proposed a two-phase implementation plan. This is the fifth time the deadline has been extended within 17 days:
• March 21: 48-hour deadline
• March 23: 5-day extension
• March 26: 10-day extension
• April 4: 48-hour deadline
• April 5: extended to April 7
Notice a pattern? Each time the deadline approaches, Trump announces extensions to soothe the market. Once the market recovers, he again states no negotiations are happening, and attacks will continue. Will an agreement finally be reached this time? Or will Trump play games and break his word again?
Today, Monday, the overall market rallied due to heightened hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire, ignoring Trump’s series of crude threats against Iran. Trump announced he plans a press conference at 1 PM Eastern, mentioning Tuesday night 8 PM, but no further details were provided.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to fight for itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, restricting global oil supplies and pushing up crude prices. Due to local storage nearing capacity, Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 6%. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about 20% of global oil transportation. The UAE is preparing to assist the US and allies in forcefully reopening the Strait and is lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such action.
The International Energy Agency warns that even if the war ends in a few weeks, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and will require long-term repairs.
Therefore, if the situation remains similar in the coming days, oil prices are likely to stay firm. Key elements to watch in the next week include:
- Whether there are signs of sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or continued restrictions.
- Whether today’s Monday rebound can sustain or quickly reverse.
- Whether short positions are beginning to close or remain high.
- Whether US inflation expectations remain elevated.
Market Outlook for Major Assets in the Coming Week
BTC: According to the rainbow chart, Bitcoin currently shows no vitality. Candlestick charts indicate that if BTC repeats the past reflexive pattern related to US-Iran war conditions, its price range in the next week will remain within $2,500. If there is no substantial progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, it will negatively impact BTC’s movement. If progress is made, the market will cheer. Today, BTC price rose and may face resistance around $71,550; if it continues upward, don’t ignore the strong resistance at $74,000. If BTC moves downward, it could still fall within a $2,500 decline, with key support near $65,750.
ETH: ETH’s current trajectory is similar to BTC. Today’s price increase may face resistance around $2,230. If it continues upward, watch the $2,300 resistance level. If ETH cannot maintain upward momentum, support is around $1,980.
Gold: Gold remains a safe haven asset amid turmoil. It may rise over the next week, potentially facing resistance around $4,900. Support levels are at $4,646 and $4,390.
Silver: Silver may continue upward in the next week, with resistance around $77. If momentum is strong, it could temporarily rise near $81. If it declines, key support is around $66.
Important Elements to Watch This Week
- Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Substantial progress on the ceasefire agreement.
- US policy updates: whether they remain consistent or further schedule adjustments.
- US inflation and labor market data.