Economist: U.S. March CPI month-over-month may surge by 1%, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year

Golden Finance reports that on April 5, economists said that the gasoline price surge that U.S. consumers are feeling firsthand will be fully reflected in the key inflation data scheduled to be released this week. It is expected that U.S. March CPI will rise 1% month over month, the largest monthly increase since 2022; core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month. Earlier, the Iran war pushed gasoline prices at U.S. gas stations up by about $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI data is released, the inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve will provide information about pre-war price pressures. Economists expect that the core PCE price index may rise 0.4% for a third consecutive month in February, indicating that even before the outbreak of the conflict, the process of bringing inflation down to a more moderate level had already stalled. Taken together with signs that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year. (Jinshi)