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The market prices in a 0% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before March 2027.
Golden Finance reports that, on March 27, according to the latest pricing shown by the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool and interest rate futures, the market has completely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates before March 2027, with the earliest expected rate cut timing pushed back to April 2027. This extreme pricing stems from the strong hawkish signal released at the Federal Reserve’s March 19 policy meeting and concerns about inflation ticking back up triggered by the Middle East geopolitical conflict.