#创作者冲榜 Did Gold and Bitcoin Suddenly Stop Being Safe Havens? The Answer Lies in "Rate Cut Expectations."

Key Turning Point: Thursday evening Beijing time, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision. Although maintaining rates, its Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly passed unanimously to hold rates. This "hawkish" signal shocked the market, sending a chill across the Atlantic.

The Data Speaks: Traders have completely wiped out bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026; interest rate swap markets show that rate cuts this year are reduced to just 12 basis points; this means even a single 25 basis point rate cut is barely within reach.

The March FOMC meeting maintained rates unchanged, with the dot plot holding at one rate cut for the full year. However, Powell released two hawkish signals (no rate cuts if inflation shows no progress; won't leave the Fed before the Trump investigation is rescinded), combined with escalating Middle East tensions, causing full-year rate cut expectations to continue retreating.

The fatal impact on assets:
Gold: Non-yielding asset; holding costs are surging sharply;
Bitcoin: Highly sensitive to liquidity; the window for fresh capital inflows has been closed.

The disappearance of rate cut expectations has drained away the "macro logic" supporting these two asset classes the most.

Why Did the Conflict Extinguish Gold Prices?

This raises the most confusing question for retail traders: Why did gold and bitcoin fall when conflict erupted in the Middle East? The root cause lies in this: the nature of the conflict has changed. This is not a simple border skirmish, but an "energy war" targeting core energy infrastructure.

Key Conflict Nodes:
March 18: Israel attacks Iran's South Pars natural gas field (the world's largest) and chemical facilities;
March 19: Iranian missiles strike Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City—the lifeblood of global LNG production;
Same day: Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh is hit by missile strikes; UAE natural gas facilities suffer damage.

Result: Brent crude briefly soared above $119; European natural gas prices surged 35%; estimates suggest this destruction could reduce Qatar's LNG exports by approximately 17% over the next three to five years.

Market logic has completely switched: Bit Wallet Chief Operating Officer Alvin Kan points out: The simultaneous decline of gold and bitcoin doesn't reflect rotation between safe-haven assets, but rather "broader de-risking behavior."

Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation expectations and reinforcing the judgment that "high rates will persist longer," which will further tighten market liquidity.

The Great Fund Migration: From Safe-Haven Assets to "Black Gold"

Behind this bloody carnage lies a clear path of capital migration.

Path One: Margin Calls Trigger Chain Liquidations

As market volatility skyrocketed, institutional investors face enormous margin call pressure. Hedge funds that had accumulated substantial floating gains during the gold bull market are beginning large-scale liquidations of long gold positions to convert into liquidity, filling gaps in other assets (such as equities).

Kingswood Group Investment Chief Paul Surguy: Global markets are experiencing broad-based selloffs; investors typically sell the most liquid assets first. Now precious metals are entering such a phase—even gold as a "safe-haven asset" is being sold to make room for other trades.

Path Two: From Gold to Oil

Bank analysts point out that the conflict is impacting the lifeblood of the global energy system, with capital gradually shifting toward hydrocarbon trading (oil, natural gas). This phenomenon of "abandoning gold for oil" is extremely rare in previous commodity cycles.

Path Three: Crypto Market Capital Exits to Observe

Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows turned negative in the previous trading day; the first negative flow after eight consecutive days of inflows; the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 46 (neutral) to 29 (fear).

Future Scenarios: A Long Bear Market or a Golden Pit?

Standing at this crossroads, bulls and bears clash fiercely.

Short-term bearish factors: Commodity strategy analysts warn: Due to previously crowded institutional positioning, once a downtrend forms, gold still has substantial downside room.

If strait closures last two months or longer, oil prices will experience a secondary peak; full-year CPI year-over-year could rebound to 3.0-4.8%; then annual Fed rate cuts could go to zero. For major asset classes, the tight monetary shock from zero rate cut expectations hasn't fully cleared.

Bitcoin Technical View: Primary consolidation zone: 70,000-75,000 USD; if 70,000 USD breaks down effectively, the next support level is 68,000 USD;
The 4-hour RSI is rapidly approaching oversold territory, with negative momentum accelerating.

Resilience Signals Worth Noting:
Trader Bryan Tan: In the initial phase of the Iran conflict, bitcoin actually outperformed gold by approximately 20%, which is unusual for an asset typically viewed as a high-volatility risk asset. Although pulling back, it hasn't experienced the stampede-like decline seen in precious metals, which to some extent reflects the resilience of its fund structure.

Old Logic Dies, New Order Awaits

This thrilling Friday may mark a turning point in an era: The old safe-haven logic is broken, and a new pricing order is being established. The simultaneous collapse of gold, silver, and bitcoin reminds every investor—before macro upheaval, no one can remain isolated. When fire burns toward the energy heartland, when inflation hijacks central bank policy, when all "safe harbors" malfunction simultaneously—the underlying market logic has been completely reconstructed.

For ordinary investors, what's needed now is not panic-driven selling, nor blind bottom-fishing, but: A cooler head than ever before, and the resolve to see through short-term fog and discern long-term value. Before this massive volatility, survival is what matters most.