#加密市场观察 Bitcoin falls below the 75,000 mark, panic index plunges sharply to 18, where is the bottom?

Market panic sentiment is spreading, but extreme fear may hide opportunities for a rebound. Bitcoin briefly broke below the key psychological support of $75,000 in early trading today, with a low of $74,565, hitting a recent new low. Ethereum performed even weaker, breaking through the $2,200 level, shrinking over 25% from its previous high.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $2.56 billion, with over 290,000 investors wiped out, and long positions account for 88% of liquidations. The market panic index slightly increased to 18, still in the extreme fear zone.
This sharp decline was triggered by a resonance of four major factors: escalation of Trump’s tariff policies, strengthening of hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve, increased outflows from Bitcoin ETF funds, and the siphoning effect of traditional safe-haven assets. Under multiple negative pressures, the crypto market has become a major area of capital flight.

News Analysis
The Trump administration reached a trade agreement with India, significantly reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, but plans to impose tariffs on the EU further exacerbated global trade frictions, leading to a sell-off in risk assets.
The nomination of a Federal Reserve chair sparked hawkish expectations. After Trump nominated Waller to be Fed Chair, the US dollar index rebounded strongly, and the market adjusted the 2026 rate cut expectation from two cuts to one.
Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for 12 consecutive weeks, with institutional allocation willingness at a freezing point, retail interest low, and 46% of Bitcoin supply in unrealized loss.
Negative sentiment on social media surged, with retail investor sentiment reaching the most pessimistic level since the market crash in November 2021.
Historical data shows that extreme pessimism is often followed by a rebound.

Bitcoin Price Analysis and Forecast
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart continues the “headless chopping” breakdown pattern, repeatedly breaking through four support levels at $78,000, $77,000, $76,000, and $75,000, with trading volume increasing by 52% compared to the previous day, indicating a “volume-driven collapse + no support” pattern.
On the four-hour chart, 15 consecutive bearish candles form an upgraded “waterfall decline,” with each rebound very small. The $75,000 level has shifted from a key psychological support to a strong resistance.
Key resistance levels are at $75,800 and $77,200, support levels at $74,565 and $74,000. If the $74,000 level is broken, the price could drop to the $72,000–$70,000 range. Galaxy Digital analysts suggest Bitcoin may further decline toward the supply gap bottom near $70,000, or even test the 200-week moving average (around $58,000) and the realized price (around $56,000), both of which historically mark cycle bottoms.

Ethereum Price Analysis and Forecast
Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin, breaking through four support levels at $2,500, $2,400, $2,300, and $2,200 on the daily chart, forming a large bearish candle with a “break and close below” pattern, with volume increasing by 68% compared to the previous day. Currently, Ethereum’s resistance levels are at $2,250 and $2,300, with support at $2,163 and $2,100. If the $2,100 level is lost, the price may drop to the $2,000 round figure.
On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, Ethereum liquidation totaled $306.96 million, with longs liquidated at $213.92 million and shorts at $93.04 million.
Leverage longs are severely constrained, with open interest down 4.14%.
BitMine Immersion Technologies reports that their vault holding 4.24 million ETH has over $6 billion in unrealized losses, exposing concentrated risk for institutional holders.
Ethereum’s medium- to long-term technical upgrade expectations have failed to withstand the short-term collapse. Despite the Fusaka upgrade increasing Blob throughput by 8 times, Layer 2 continued to divert transactions from the mainnet, leading to low Gas fees and weakening deflationary logic.