#数字资产市场动态 【Don't Panic During a Rapid Drop! Do You Understand the Secrets of "Hedged Short Positions"?】

Recently, a trader’s position data is quite revealing—PAXG short position with an unrealized loss of $470,000, but the total unrealized profit in the account has reached $1.24 million. The underlying logic behind this contradictory phenomenon precisely reflects the current market divergence.

**Why are they daring to short gold?**

These traders have a clear approach: under the Fed’s policy shift + expectations of peaking inflation, the safe-haven aura of gold may fade. But it’s not that simple—geopolitical shocks cause traditional funds to rush back into gold, and on-chain PAXG holdings are also rebounding. Market panic emotions are more intense than expected.

**Why can BTC and altcoin shorts earn $124,000?**

The overall judgment is correct. After significant rallies, ETH and BTC repeatedly cool off at key levels, and altcoins have been sluggish for a long time. On-chain monitoring shows large holders are still transferring assets to exchanges, and selling pressure has not fully released. The profits from shorting altcoins this time fully offset the gold losses, indicating the timing is quite accurate.

**How to analyze the future?**

Gold may still be supported by safe-haven sentiment in the short term, but from a medium-term perspective, as long as the US economy doesn’t collapse, gold will face a correction—meaning those shorting gold might still have a way out.

The crypto market’s bottom has not yet been reached. If BTC holds above the $40,000 level, a rebound could occur, but don’t mistake this for the start of altcoin season; rebounds are often just windows for institutions to offload. The key indicator is on-chain leverage ratio: long leverage has not fully liquidated, and only when the liquidation wave truly hits will be the precise signal to buy the dip.

**A core insight:** Successful traders don’t make money by being right on every trade, but by ensuring overall account profits cover losses during phases. This kind of "hedged short" approach precisely indicates that the market is entering a divergence phase—relying solely on news is not enough; cross-verifying positions with on-chain data is essential to sense the market’s direction early.