#稳定币应用场景 After reading this 2026 Memorandum, I have some thoughts to share.

Kyle's core logic actually hits the most painful spot right now—the crypto market has shifted from a paradise capable of supporting long-term compound growth dreams to a trading arena that heavily relies on narrative rotation. He openly admits that his DeFi positioning in 2025 was a complete failure, and the L1 narrative has also collapsed, but he can quickly turn things around using new directions like Pengu, aerospace stocks, and micro-cap concept stocks. This ability to switch flexibly is truly a rare quality.

The topic of stablecoins resonates with me the most. He predicts 2026 will be the year of large-scale stablecoin adoption, with CRCL soaring to $200. Looking back over the past decade, every time mainstream financial institutions truly get involved, it’s when infrastructure assets explode. Tempo is building, big banks are preparing—this logic feels very familiar—like the tension before the ICO boom at the end of 2017. The problem is, the interest rate cut cycle is genuinely squeezing the yield spread of stablecoins, and whether the "increase in currency circulation speed" can offset this remains uncertain.

What’s even more intriguing is a metaphor running through the entire article: the democratization of retail investing is turning the stock market into a "crypto-like" environment. The return curves of small- and mid-cap stocks are starting to resemble the familiar rollercoaster pattern, which is both an opportunity and a trap for traders used to crypto volatility. The PTSD-like instinct to exit early might eat into how much real compound growth can be achieved on the stock side.

Historically, each wave of emerging markets maturing has seen some people complete wealth transfer through "theme switching." But most people get stuck at the "toolbox upgrade" stage. Recognizing micro-cap narratives and precisely positioning in truly growing companies may seem like just a matter of a different cognitive dimension, but in reality, it’s a completely different game with different rules.

The real test in 2026 isn’t about whether predictions are right or wrong, but whether everyone can honestly face their own capability limits—then either deepen their expertise or migrate to new areas. There is no third way.