#市场周期与趋势 Looking at VanEck's 2026 outlook, what comes to mind are the several complete cycles we've experienced over the years. Bitcoin's previous cycle saw an 80% decline, while this time the expected drop is around 40%—this data actually reflects a quiet shift in market structure.

I still remember the 2017 cycle, with extreme volatility and widespread leverage. This time is different. After multiple shakeouts, on-chain leverage has been reset. What does this mean? It indicates that market participants' risk awareness is evolving, and institutional players are gaining more influence. From this perspective, the decline may indeed be narrower.

The four-year cycle rule is still in effect—after the October 2025 high, this historical pattern still shows resilience. But 2026 becoming a consolidation year is actually a signal worth paying close attention to. It’s not a rapid surge nor a crash, but a period of structural adjustment.

I am particularly focused on the fragmentation of global liquidity. While rate cuts support one side, the US is tightening due to the AI capital expenditure boom. This misalignment itself creates opportunities. Although on-chain activity remains sluggish, signs of improvement are emerging, laying the groundwork for the next cycle.

If I had to give my allocation a direction, consistently investing 1-3% in Bitcoin is definitely worth sticking to. The key is execution—adding during leverage liquidations, reducing during overheated speculation. It sounds simple, but in real market volatility, it tests one’s mindset and patience. History shows that cycles always repeat, but the details change each time.