#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 🔥Bitcoin Technical and Macro Analysis: Solid Bottom Support, Huge Room for $185,500 Target🔥

Recent Bitcoin performance reflects a tug-of-war between two forces—on one side, macro bullish factors are accumulating; on the other, short-term capital fluctuations are exerting pressure.

Why is the macro environment still optimistic?
The rate cut cycle continues to advance, M2 money supply remains growing, and the overall liquidity ecosystem is not hostile to crypto assets. But you may have also noticed that the $4.57 billion ETF outflows have indeed cooled short-term prices. However, there is a key catalyst that is easy to overlook—the advancement of the CLARITY Act. Once large banks officially participate, the institutional capital gap will reverse the current selling pressure, and the market will shift from "de-risking" to "re-risking" mode. This transition could happen faster than you imagine.

What does on-chain data say?
The $84,000 level has formed quite solid buy support, making a short-term downward break difficult. Meanwhile, $98,000 has become the cost basis for short-term holders and constitutes the main resistance above. Interestingly, the MVRV-Z indicator shows that Bitcoin is currently in a fair value zone—neither showing obvious bubbles nor extreme panic, but rather a healthy consolidation state.

Price outlook: why is there still room for a double?
Based on a baseline valuation of $145,000 plus a 25% macro adjustment (rate cut expectations, M2 growth, positive impact of the CLARITY Act), our target price is set at $185,500. In other words, there is still about 100% upside potential compared to the current price.

What’s next?
In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate within a range, digesting the pressure from ETF outflows. But once institutional capital begins to fill the gap and policy benefits are truly implemented, the price will quickly break out of this consolidation and enter a new upward cycle. Mainstream coins like ETH and SOL usually follow Bitcoin’s rhythm.

Final words
With a stable macro environment, neutral to strong on-chain data, and gradually releasing institutional expectations—Bitcoin is not at a record high now, but accumulating energy. Short-term volatility cannot change the long-term trend, and the $185,500 target provides a clear upward space. Instead of panicking, it’s better to patiently wait for bottom confirmation and genuine institutional capital replenishment. By 2026, Bitcoin is not "too expensive," but rather "coming too late."