On January 3rd at 9:45 AM, the US December Manufacturing PMI data will be released. As the first major economic indicator of 2026, how much impact will it have on the cryptocurrency market? Let's first understand its logic.

This PMI data is independently published by S&P Global, not directly controlled by the Federal Reserve, which allows it to more accurately reflect the actual state of the US economy. Once the data is released, the market will quickly reassess the pricing of risk assets—and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are often among the first to feel the impact.

Let's consider three possible scenarios.

**Scenario 1: PMI exceeds 52.5**

This indicates that the US economy is indeed expanding, with business confidence strong enough to support growth. Coupled with the Federal Reserve secretly maintaining ample liquidity, institutional funds will feel more confident to enter the market. Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience a new round of capital revaluation, and the overall market valuation could recover upward.

**Scenario 2: PMI stays between 51.5 and 52.5**

This situation is quite awkward, as economic signals are ambiguous, and the market enters a tug-of-war phase. At this point, three things should be closely monitored: the Fed's stance on 2026 interest rate policies, the capital flow trends of crypto spot ETFs, and the liquidity depth on the blockchain. In the short term, market direction is hard to predict, and the most important thing is to avoid blindly increasing leverage.

**Scenario 3: PMI drops below 51.5**

Caution. This signals that the economic slowdown is beginning to turn red, and risk assets will be sold off first. Cryptocurrencies will almost certainly undergo a correction. Even more concerning is that the current overall market leverage is relatively high; if liquidity suddenly tightens, high-leverage positions could trigger a chain of liquidations and a stampede, leading to chaos.

**Operational advice is straightforward**

Within one hour before and after the data release, it's best to avoid high-leverage trading. The correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin often reveals early signs quickly, so prepare in advance. Regardless of the data outcome, stay calm and have a plan.