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#2026行情预测 The current views of cryptocurrency market analysts show significant divergence.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bit, remains optimistic, believing that market liquidity for cryptocurrencies has bottomed out in November. With institutional funds continuing to flow in, a new upward cycle is gradually beginning. He analyzes that the market weakness in November was mainly due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the US government shutdown. However, as policies shift and hidden liquidity is released, funds are accelerating back into the crypto space.
On the other hand, some analysts are more cautious. The analysis team at financial services giant Cantor predicts that the "winter" for Bitcoin may be approaching, and prices could further decline over the next year. They point out that if we are currently in a crypto winter, this process typically lasts about 365 days, and we may only be in the 85th day.
Standard Chartered has recently significantly lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000.
Senior market analyst Linh Tran predicts: "Bitcoin's price fluctuation range may remain around $80,000 to $100,000."
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes that although Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs again, the new high points will not have substantial breakthroughs beyond the previous level of $126,000. After reaching new highs, a bear market may follow.
Technical Analysis and Capital Flows
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still oscillating within a key range. Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, points out that Bitcoin is still "trapped in a compressive range of volatility," and the complex macroeconomic background, tightening liquidity, and declining risk appetite make it difficult for Bitcoin to regain upward momentum below $90,000.
Options market data shows that put options are concentrated around $85,000, while call options are distributed between $100,000 and $120,000, reflecting the confrontation between bullish and bearish forces.
Regarding capital flows, investors should closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy. The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, which could boost investors' risk appetite, including interest in the crypto market. Currently, the market estimates a 74% probability that the Fed will cut rates at least twice before the end of the year.
Market volatility has put pressure on Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). CoinShares noted in early December 2025 that the DAT bubble has actually burst in many aspects.
As the net asset values (NAV) of several treasury companies fell below 1 after adjustments, some companies may be forced to sell holdings in a liquidity-scarce market.
Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, recently hinted that if mNAV falls below 1.0, the company might sell Bitcoin. Although this tech company is still raising billions of dollars to buy Bitcoin, such extreme situations warrant market caution.
Late-night tremors may just be the beginning of intense volatility in the 2026 cryptocurrency market.