I once read a quote that left a deep impression: "Never fight the trend." This is not just motivational talk; it actually reflects a profound logic in finance—the theory of reflexivity by George Soros.

Simply put: market prices are not solely determined by fundamentals but are reinforced by the expectations and perceptions of participants. This is especially evident in the crypto market. When SOL or BNB begins an upward trend, FOMO sentiment spreads, retail investors rush in, funds push prices higher, attracting more followers, creating a self-fulfilling positive cycle. This is an objective market phenomenon.

Therefore, the key is not to predict the exact top but to quickly identify when a trend is forming. For example, if a certain coin continuously breaks through resistance levels with increased volume, it often signals the start of a new trend. The strategy at this point should be: follow the trend, but set clear stop-loss levels (such as breaking below the trendline or previous lows).

But there is a pitfall to avoid here. The theory of reflexivity also tells us that any trend will eventually come to an end. When prices deviate significantly from fundamentals, the system will self-correct, and the trend may reverse instantly. So, following the trend does not mean blindly chasing highs; it means carefully selecting the best entry points within the trend and continuously monitoring volume and macroeconomic conditions—liquidity drying up or policy shifts are often signals that the trend is about to end.

Risk always comes first.