#预测市场 Seeing the Space project, my mind automatically recalls the cycle of 2021. UFO was able to reach a $1.5 billion market cap back then, not because of some mysterious innovative mechanism, but due to the combined effect of distribution capability and community consensus — something we clearly understood at the time. Now, Space is using the same team and the same philosophy to build a prediction market, which is somewhat like reinterpreting a story with historical experience.

The prediction market track itself is not new, but it has long been stuck in a liquidity deadlock. Space attempts to break this deadlock with 10x leverage, zero Maker fees, and a centralized limit order book, which is a promising approach. More importantly, there is the flywheel mechanism of 50% revenue buyback and burn — a token value feedback design that we saw quite a few times in 2021, but only a few projects have truly persisted in executing it.

The gameplay of this public sale is also worth pondering: variable token allocation, unified settlement price, tiered rights system — all pointing to one direction: reshaping participants’ trust in the project with as fair and transparent a method as possible. Compared to some projects’ private fundraising tactics of cutting leeks, this logic indeed feels more like genuinely building an ecosystem.

However, I want to say that no matter how clever the mechanism or how impressive the fundraising figures, ultimately it depends on the actual number of users and trading depth. The success or failure of a prediction market has never been determined at launch, but rather by the retention rate after six months. Whether Space can break free from the fate of its predecessors remains to be seen over time.