2026-01-01 10:27:06

The year-end US stock market data is indeed eye-catching. Achieving double-digit gains for three consecutive years, such a sustained upward trend is rare in history.

Specifically, the S&P 500 index rose over 16% in 2025, 23% in 2024, and 24% in 2023. The bull market that started in October 2022 is mainly supported by three forces: first, the investment boom in artificial intelligence remains hot; second, the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle provides ample liquidity for the market; third, the economy continues to grow resiliently despite recession concerns.

However, aiming for another impressive doubling year in 2026 becomes significantly more challenging. The market needs to see stronger corporate earnings to support valuations, and the Federal Reserve must maintain a relatively moderate policy stance—this is the most critical point, as any sudden rate hike signals could disrupt the rhythm. Additionally, whether the growth momentum driven by artificial intelligence can continue to output growth is also an immediate concern.

In other words, whether the US stock market can continue to rise depends on whether these three conditions are simultaneously met. Missing any one of them is not acceptable.

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DogeBachelor

· 1h ago

All three conditions must be met properly, otherwise it will have to fall.

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SerumDegen

· 1h ago

nah this is just copium on steroids... fed gotta pivot hard or we're cascading into liquidation city fr fr

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LightningAllInHero

· 2h ago

Oh my, AI has to carry us again. Powell turns around and hikes interest rates—what to do? --- Do all three conditions have to be met? That difficulty level is a bit outrageous. --- Basically, it's a gamble that the Fed won't cause trouble; everything else is just talk. --- No one dared to go all-in for three consecutive years, and next year might be the ceiling signal. --- If corporate profits can't keep up with valuations, it's game over. Everything is already priced in. --- Can the current AI hype last until 2026? I'm really a bit skeptical. --- Missing one is unacceptable... So basically, it's missing one. Pick one.

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TrustMeBro

· 2h ago

Continuous three-year increase of 16%+ in the same rhythm is really outrageous... But doubling by 2026? Haha, I can't help but laugh out loud. --- To put it simply, it's betting that the Federal Reserve won't cause trouble, and AI still needs to keep outputting... Both are indispensable, and that sounds very risky. --- The recent surge in the US stock market is entirely driven by liquidity piling up. Now we wait for corporate earnings to materialize, which is the real test. --- If all three conditions are met simultaneously? Brother, the probability must be so small that you need a microscope to see it. --- How long the AI investment boom can last is really a question mark—who knows... --- Doubling again by 2026 is clearly very difficult; I think it's unlikely. --- The key still depends on the attitude of the Federal Reserve. A single rate hike signal can cause the entire logic to collapse. --- Resilient growth sounds good, but can the profit data keep up? That's the real issue.

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