2026 may not be easy for the Federal Reserve. Economic data is unpredictable, officials need to meet frequently to discuss, and with leadership changes, market uncertainty will significantly increase. Especially with the new Fed Chair nominated by Trump, whether they can reach a consensus with the current committee has become a focal point.

From the recent November employment data, signs of economic weakening are already quite evident. Many market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times in 2026. But the real suspense lies in—will the new Chair implement aggressive policy adjustments? Can the other 18 FOMC members form a united front?

Deutsche Bank's Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti( bluntly stated: "While the Fed Chair is very important, no one person makes the decision. The collective decision of the committee is key."

It's easier said than done. Even a small change in interest rates can affect mortgage payments, credit card interest, and even your bank account earnings. If there is disagreement within the FOMC, it poses a challenge for borrowers and investors alike.

Looking at how 2025 was managed, you can see it clearly. At that time, Powell worked hard to gain support from some hawkish members for a plan of three rate cuts. By 2026, these outspoken hawks will still take turns sitting in the voting seats, and their influence will not be small.

Luzzetti's judgment is that by mid-2026, economic data may no longer support further rate cuts. Signs of weakness have already appeared in the labor market—evident from the November unemployment data. This means the Fed's decision-making space will be further constrained, and the likelihood of policy shifts will increase.