#代币化趋势 Seeing these three pieces of news together, I have a familiar feeling—like a moment before the wave in 2017.

First, let's talk about Tom Lee's perspective. His approach to discount rates isn't new, but what's different this time is that there are actual actions backing it up. DTCC has been approved to custody tokenized assets on-chain, and SEC Chair publicly stated the push for on-chain transformation—this isn't the rambling of speculators; it's a decision from Wall Street. I saw Bitcoin drop from 220 to 65 in 2013, and Ethereum rise from a few cents to 1400 and then fall back to the twenties. Every time, someone says "this time is different," but this time truly is.

What's the difference? In the past, the dominant narratives were mostly technical imaginations, but behind the "tokenization" narrative, it’s the US financial system itself. When infrastructure players like DTCC get involved, and when the SEC is not banning but actively designing innovation exemptions, it’s no longer about whether the ecosystem can survive, but about the timetable for traditional finance to migrate onto the chain.

I agree with the idea that the endpoint is in ten years, but we must also beware of a trap—every systemic shift in history has involved many losers. Not all assets on-chain are valuable, and not all tokenization projects will live to see the end. I’ve seen too many "future mega chains" that ultimately only serve as footnotes in history.

What truly warrants reflection is: in the next five to ten years, which asset tokenizations will become infrastructure, and which are just hype? That’s the lesson learned from past cycles.