Looking back on the past, the development of the prediction market has been full of ups and downs. Polymarket was once extremely popular, but now it has lost its shine. The rise of Kalshi makes me think of the rise and fall of Intrade back in the day.

Seeing the news that Kalshi completed a $1 billion financing at a valuation of $11 billion, I feel a mix of emotions. This number is astonishing, but it also reminds me of projects that were equally impressive at the time but eventually disappeared into the long river of history.

Kalshi has defied the odds under heavy regulatory pressure, with trading volume soaring and valuation skyrocketing. This situation is very similar to Intrade back in the day. I remember in 2012, Intrade was at its peak, but ultimately could not escape regulatory constraints. History often repeats itself surprisingly, and I can't help but worry whether Kalshi will follow the same path.

However, times are changing after all. The regulatory environment Kalshi faces now is very different from that of Intrade ten years ago. The rise of cryptocurrencies and the development of blockchain technology have brought new possibilities to prediction markets. Perhaps, Kalshi can find a unique path in this new era.

Looking back and looking ahead, I believe the development of prediction markets still holds many opportunities and challenges. The key lies in balancing compliance and innovation. The success or failure of Kalshi may guide the entire industry. Let's wait and see how history will be written this time.