#数字货币市场洞察 The sudden dual shocks are reshaping global capital flows.

Japan has just experienced a 7.6 magnitude earthquake, and a tsunami warning has been issued. This is not just a natural disaster—under pressure, the yen is depreciating, and the Bank of Japan’s original plan for rate hikes may be forced to pause. When the world’s third-largest economy changes its policy stance, international capital’s demand for safe havens will inevitably shift toward other asset classes.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s key decision is also unfolding. The market has already priced in an 87% chance of a rate cut, but the real variable lies in Powell’s wording—will he signal that “this rate cut might be a one-off”? Even the slightest adjustment in his language could trigger dramatic shifts in market sentiment.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

On one hand, the uncertainty in the policies of the two major central banks will directly increase market volatility. Historical data shows that macro black swan events often catalyze the search for alternative liquidity outlets, and BTC, as the ballast stone of global liquidity, often becomes a focal point for capital during such times. On the other hand, when both “rate cuts and liquidity injections” and “risk-averse sentiment” are simultaneously activated, it’s difficult in the short term to predict whether profit-taking pressure will be greater, or if the impulse for new inflows will be stronger.

In the few hours following the evening’s decision, the market will provide the most direct answer. This is a key window to test macro expectation differentials. $BTC $ETH $BNB