#FedRateCutPrediction

In my opinion, the interest rate decision to be announced this week is one of the most problematic decisions of the year. Because on one hand, the market has a “definite 25bp cut” sentiment, but on the other hand, the latest data sets are still tight…
This contradiction makes pricing extremely complicated.

My own approach is clear:
For me, the Fed making the cut alone is not enough for pricing. The most important thing is Powell’s tone. Because we saw the same thing last year—the uncertainty in his statements, not the decision itself, caused chaos in the markets.

This week, in particular, I’m watching Bitcoin’s reaction in the 86–92 range. There was a similar squeeze in 2021, and while everyone was focused on “decision day,” the move actually came a day before the announcement. Personally, I rushed and opened a position during that period and got stuck unnecessarily. That’s why I’m not acting aggressively this time.

In short, my own strategy:
I first watch the volatility, especially how the market reacts to “expectations rather than the decision” along with ETF inflows, which is much more meaningful. If the cut comes and the press conference is dovish, I would expect a quick recovery in the majors at first; but I’m on the side that waits for confirmation, not the bottom, because I’ve learned that in this market, survival is more valuable than celebrating early.

This week could really be a turning point.
If the Fed’s language softens, we may see short-term relief, but for a sustained rally, macro data needs to become a bit clearer.

These are my thoughts—let’s see who the market will prove right this time.