#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Is Bitcoin Really an Independent Asset? The Data Says Otherwise

Many people think Bitcoin is a completely independent alternative asset. But in reality, its relationship with the US dollar is much closer than you might imagine. Statistics show that over 80% of crypto trading funds come from the US dollar system. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are essentially US dollars circulating on-chain. When US dollar liquidity expands, Bitcoin often rises first; when liquidity tightens, it feels the pressure faster as well.

Why is Bitcoin so sensitive to changes in liquidity?

Compared to traditional markets, the Bitcoin market has a unique feature—it’s truly a 24/7 global market with no circuit breakers or regulatory safety nets. The stock market has up and down limits, real estate has policy controls. But what about the crypto market? Emotions are directly translated into price volatility. It’s like the nerve endings of the financial system—any slight movement is quickly reflected.

USDT supply changes are a clear signal. When USDT is issued, market liquidity increases and capital inflows drive up coin prices; when USDT supply contracts or there are large-scale redemptions, the market immediately feels the pressure of liquidity drying up. This isn’t mysticism, but an observable mathematical relationship—stablecoins are the liquidity engine for Bitcoin. Now that global regulations are tightening and stablecoin issuers are more cautious, these liquidity shifts are even more worth watching.

Bitcoin is a real-time barometer of US dollar credit

Bank lending tightens, US Treasury yields spike, ETF outflows, stablecoin net outflows... For all these signals of changing US dollar credit, Bitcoin often reacts first. It’s not predicting the future, but as a highly sensitive asset, it displays changes in US dollar credit in real time. When it rises, it signals expansion; when it drops, it means contraction. This trait makes it a unique window for observing macro liquidity.

What should ordinary investors do?

To be honest, the main players in this market are institutions. Retail investors trying to “go all in” are basically giving away money. Here are a few practical suggestions:

Don’t put all your funds into one trade. Building a position gradually is the safer approach, especially in highly volatile markets.

Follow the trend—don’t try to guess the top or bottom. Only get in when the market stabilizes and trends upward. During consolidation phases, it’s best to wait and avoid frequent trading.

High leverage is a big taboo. People using 10x leverage could get liquidated in minutes due to volatility. If you must use leverage, set a stop-loss, generally around 8%-10% is reasonable, and exit decisively if it’s hit.

The market is always changing, but understanding the logic behind an asset is more important than chasing short-term gains. The correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is redefining our perception of liquidity.