The Damocles sword of debt is hanging even lower.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.12%—what does this number mean? It’s the highest point in three years. On December 5th, the market was still digesting this 2-basis-point jump, but what’s even more striking is the story behind it: the IMF directly predicts that by 2030, the US debt-to-GDP ratio will soar to 143.4%, leaving even Italy behind. BNP Paribas was even more blunt, laying out the numbers clearly—the aftereffects of high-interest borrowing during the pandemic are now all coming to a head.

Interestingly, while everyone is talking about selling, their actions say otherwise. Data from September shows that overseas investors are still holding $9.25 trillion in US Treasuries, with Japan even increasing its holdings to a three-year high against the trend. This move has a bit of the “smells good” law to it.

But the 4.12% line is no joke. Corporate financing costs are soaring, with tech stocks bearing the brunt; meanwhile, the US dollar’s credibility is being diluted, and capital is pouring into gold—$3,000 an ounce can’t stop it.

For now, the US can still rely on being “the least rotten apple in the bunch” to hold things together, but how long can this balance, propped up by credit overdraft, last? The reshuffling of the financial order might come faster than we imagine.