#美联储重启降息步伐 There's a tough battle tonight at 11 PM—the September PCE inflation data will be released. You might have heard of this; it's what the Fed is watching closely. Once the data comes out, we'll basically know whether that December rate cut will happen. Right now, the market is pricing in an 87% chance of a rate cut—pretty wild, right? The thing is, everyone is watching this inflation string—will it stay tight or loosen up?

My take might be a little harsh: no matter if the numbers look good or bad, it's not a good thing for crypto in the short term.

Let's start with a mild data scenario. The market has already hyped up rate cut expectations to 87%, so even if inflation does drop, it's just "good news already priced in." You know how it goes—classic playbook: the good news is out, and it turns into a sell-off. People got in early, and when the news drops, they start getting out.

Now, what if the data is explosive? What if inflation is even worse than expected? Then the Fed will likely tighten up and delay any rate cuts. Global hot money is already eyeing risk assets, including our space, but this would kill the momentum for capital inflows. Bitcoin could end up testing $90,000, and even holding $89,000 would be questionable.

So my advice to retail investors is to stay calm. The entire crypto market is like a stretched rubber band, waiting for this news to break the deadlock. BTC is stuck around $92,000, not really moving, with bulls and bears wrestling in the $91,000 to $95,000 range. Once the news hits, a 3-5% swing in either direction is totally normal.

What should you do tonight? Here are eight words: Don’t act rashly, watch more, trade less.

If you really have to trade, remember to get in and out quickly. The biggest trap right now isn’t missing the move, but going all-in on the wrong side and getting whipsawed. If the market suddenly surges after the data drops, don’t chase—it’s probably a bull trap. If it dumps hard, don’t rush to catch the bottom either; wait until things stabilize. In news-driven markets, surviving is more important than making money.

As for which coins might have opportunities and what price levels are worth watching, I'll discuss that separately later. Remember this: at critical moments, protecting your principal is the only way to catch the real trend. $BTC