#ETH走势分析 Having been in the crypto space for these years, I've seen too many people make a fortune in a bull market, only to give it all back in a bear market. I've been at this for over eight years, fallen into countless traps along the way, and only finally figured out a survival strategy. If you’ve been trading for over a year but still aren’t making progress, you might want to check out these real-world takeaways—

Let’s start with capital management. If your account holds less than 200,000, stop trying to catch every single market move. Catching just one real major uptrend a year is enough; for the rest of the time, it’s best to stay light or even in cash. Many people lose everything because they can’t stand not being fully invested.

The word “cognition” is overused, but it’s the truth. You’ll never make money beyond your level of understanding. I suggest beginners train their mentality with a paper trading account first—a simulated account lets you “die” a hundred times, but real money could wipe you out in one go.

The market’s reaction to good news is interesting. If you haven’t exited on the day of a major positive announcement, you must decisively sell on the high open the next day. The adage “good news turns into bad news when it lands” never fails in crypto.

Before every major holiday, I always reduce my positions a week in advance. Look at the historical data—you’ll see that nine times out of ten, the market drops during holidays.

The core of mid-to-long-term strategies is just four words: rolling operations. Always keep enough cash on hand; sell in batches when prices are high, buy in batches when they drop sharply. Never use up all your ammunition at once.

For short-term trading, volume and candlestick patterns are key. Only focus on assets with high volatility and active turnover; avoid the stagnant ones.

The pace of a drop can predict the strength of the rebound—a slow drop leads to a sluggish rebound; a sharp drop often brings a strong bounce.

There’s no shame in making a bad buy; stubbornly holding on is what’s truly foolish. Cutting losses in time to protect your capital is more important than anything else. Without capital, the best opportunities mean nothing to you.

For short-term trading, the 15-minute candlestick chart is a must, and combining it with the KDJ indicator can help you find great entry and exit points.

One last thing: there are thousands of trading techniques and strategies, but you only need to master two or three. Don’t bite off more than you can chew—being highly skilled in a few effective methods is a hundred times better than knowing a little about everything but excelling at nothing.