Statistics indicate that polymarkets had the first down month since August 2025. The total volume amounted to 23.4 billion in February 2026. Although this is a decrease, the figure is an indicator of high attendance. Following several months of aggressive expansion, a deceleration was predicted. Very seldom are markets straight line. As such, this pullback is an indication of consolidation as opposed to collapse.
In February, Kalshi became the obvious leader. The trading volume on the platform was captured at 9.8 billion. This is a strong growth compared to January when the figure stood at 8.9 billion. This has led to Kalshi taking over the industry. It is still experiencing popularity amongst institutional and retail clients. Its regulatory stance in the U.S. also gives it credibility. This makes it have a competitive advantage.
Polymarket Holds Steady
The performance of Polymarket was different. The platform turned over $7.6 billion. Nonetheless, revenue still saw no or slight negative monthly growth. This implies the stoppage of the momentum. The activity has stabilized after a spectacular growth in the past few months. Opinion Labs underwent the greatest change. The volume was reduced to $3.1 billion, as compared to 8.1 billion. This is a steep cooldown. This kind of a decrease is an indicator of decreasing user activity. It can also portray the overextension of earlier. Furthermore, there might also be heightened scrutiny surrounding the recorded metrics which would have influenced participation. Since competition is a game of survival, weaker competitors tend to fall behind.
Market Structure Is Fast Changing
Convergence is exhibited in the industry. The market is dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket with a huge percentage. This forms an almost duopoly format. At the same time, smaller platforms are not able to sustain growth. Nevertheless, the market in general is robust. The monthly volumes remain within the tens of billions. This means that there will be a long-term demand in event-based trading.
The Future of Prediction Markets
The tendency of slowdown is not going to alter the larger pattern in the short term. The prediction markets are growing as a new asset category. They are a mixture of finance, data and real world events. Nevertheless, the growth will tend to become more selective. Long term value will only be garnered on robust platforms. Winners will be characterized by regulation, liquidity and user trust. Thus, the drop of February can be just a reset of the market. It focuses the industry towards its new stage of development. Nevertheless, Polymarket is still a key competitor. Its crypto-native design keeps increasing the number of users worldwide.
Prediction markets have only reached an impasse- not a failure. There is still large volume despite the initial reduction in months. Leaders are still becoming dominant. Meanwhile, weaker players are put under pressure. The industry has also reached its more mature stage. The growth becomes increasing, but the competition becomes harder.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Breaks Through $72,000: The Iran–Israel ceasefire boosts risk assets, with $427 million in short positions liquidated, but Polymarket shows disagreement on end-of-year outlook
Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on April 10, mainly due to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that boosted market risk appetite, with funds flowing from safe-haven assets into Bitcoin. Increased institutional inflows and a rebound in Large Investors’ holdings are driving the price higher. Technical analysis shows that the main resistance lies in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Despite a bullish outlook in the short term, there is still disagreement over forecasts for Bitcoin’s price by year-end, and the risk of a pullback also needs to be watched.
ChainNewsAbmedia1h ago
Bank of America report: Kalshi controls 89% of prediction markets, regulatory advantage leads the competition
A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.
MarketWhisper4h ago
Insider Trading Suspicion! The White House Bans Staff From Participating in Prediction Market Betting
The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.
MarketWhisper7h ago
Polymarket「The probability that Taylor Swift will get married before the end of June」falls to 19%, down 45% over the past 24 hours
Polymarket’s odds prediction for Taylor Swift’s wedding have fallen to 19%, down 45% within 24 hours. The latest reports indicate the wedding will take place on July 3 in New York, rather than the June 13 date previously rumored.
GateNews7h ago
On Polymarket, the predicted probability that OneFootball Club’s token FDV exceeds $50 million falls to 14%
Gate News, April 10, Polymarket prediction market data shows the probability of "OneFootball Club surpasses a $50 million FDV market cap after one day of opening" falling to 14%, with a 24-hour decline of 51%. Late yesterday afternoon (April 9), OneFootball Club announced on the X platform that its token OFC has officially gone live, with a current market cap of $45 million.
GateNews7h ago
The White House warns employees not to use policy insider information to place bets on prediction markets
The White House warns staff not to use their positions to bet in prediction markets, especially by engaging in unusual trading activity before policies suddenly change. Accounts that have already profited more than $600k through prediction have drawn criticism, and critics suspect that someone used insider information to profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning.
GateNews8h ago
