Prediction Market

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to transfer regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the impact of state-level gaming laws.

The U.S. federal government is working jointly with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from local governments to the federal government, arguing that sports betting contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and unify regulation nationwide, reducing the impact of local gambling laws.

At the Autoresearch Hackathon hosted by Paradigm, Ryan Li used AI to complete the problem-solving process and ultimately won the championship. He used multiple AI agents to automate research, generated more than 1,000 strategies, and successfully created an approximately 900-line Python market-making algorithm, demonstrating AI’s advantages in problem-solving. The competition emphasized AI’s exploration and decision-making capabilities, showing that it can serve as a core execution unit.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal government, arguing that sports betting contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it would change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the impact of state and local gambling laws.

Congressional scrutiny arises over Polymarket after over 50 new accounts placed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire just before Trump's announcement. Lawmakers are demanding a CFTC investigation, highlighting concerns about insider trading and the platform's regulatory status.

A U.S. federal court ruled to pause Arizona’s regulatory actions against the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal government has priority in regulating financial derivatives. The platform argues that its event contracts are not traditional gambling, but financial instruments. This ruling may affect a nationwide, unified regulatory framework for financial markets.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports betting contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of local gambling laws.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority for Kalshi prediction markets from local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports betting contracts are financial derivatives. If the court backs this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of local gambling laws.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports betting contracts are financial derivatives. If the court backs this position, it would change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the impact of state-level betting laws.

On April 11, the prediction platform shows that Rory McIlroy’s probability of winning the 2026 U.S. Masters Golf Tournament has risen to 70%, up 46% within 24 hours. The current contract trading volume is more than $107 million. The event is proceeding normally, with McIlroy and Sam Burns tied for the lead after the first round.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

A U.S. federal judge, Michael Liburdi, temporarily blocked the state of Arizona from proceeding with criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi. The state has brought 20 counts of illegal gambling against Kalshi. The CFTC argues that federal oversight takes priority and that prediction markets fall under its regulation; if ultimately established, it would benefit the legal environment for the entire industry. The case still requires further proceedings.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court backs this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $75,000 in April is 77%, and the probability of breaking above $80,000 is 24%; the probability of dropping to below $65,000 is 30%. Deribit data shows that the max pain（maximum pain）price for Bitcoin options expiring on April 24 is $70,000, with a notional amount of approximately $6.98 billion.

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.

The article discusses legal disputes involving Polymarket prediction markets, especially the unclear boundary between insider trading and gambling. It emphasizes that using USDC for settlement exposes Chinese participants to legal risk, and it mentions the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act” proposed by a U.S. senator, which prohibits certain government officials and their family members from participating in prediction market trading.

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on April 10, mainly due to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that boosted market risk appetite, with funds flowing from safe-haven assets into Bitcoin. Increased institutional inflows and a rebound in Large Investors’ holdings are driving the price higher. Technical analysis shows that the main resistance lies in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Despite a bullish outlook in the short term, there is still disagreement over forecasts for Bitcoin’s price by year-end, and the risk of a pullback also needs to be watched.

A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.